College football scores › Week 7 › Northern Illinois at Wyoming
BEAVER NIU +7.5, lostBEAVER Over 41.5, wonBEAVER had WYO 66% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–WYO) | 20–26 | 15–25 | – | 23–41 | |
| Spread | WYO −6.6 | WYO −10.8 | WYO −7.5 | WYO by 18 | NIU +7.5 ✗ |
| Total | 45.9 | 40.1 | 41.5 | 64 | Over 41.5 ✓ |
| WYO win chance | 66% | – | −290 | Won |
NIU by 14+
9%
NIU by 1–13
24%
WYO by 1–13
35%
WYO by 14+
32%
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.207 #131Offense EPA / play−0.143 #121
+0.170 #126Defense EPA / play allowed+0.132 #112
−3.8% #103Offense success rate−4.1% #106
+6.6% #124Defense success rate allowed+7.4% #132
−0.098 #119Rushing EPA / play+0.001 #83
−0.247 #125Passing EPA / play−0.326 #132
+0.141 #121Rush defense EPA allowed+0.131 #116
−0.416 #1Pass defense EPA allowed+0.129 #96
−12.6 #131Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−15.9 #138
+6.7 #115Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.9 #79
Situational
−11.8% #137Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.2% #94
+7.0% #123Passing-down success allowed+2.3% #90
−1.27 #125Points per drive−1.72 #137
+1.06 #120Points per drive allowed+0.40 #92
Trenches
−0.06 #98Line yards per rush+0.24 #44
+0.17 #97Line yards per rush allowed+0.36 #120
+0.2% #100Runs stuffed at the line−2.8% #55
−1.7% #91Opponent runs stuffed−3.9% #124
+0.4% #108Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.4% #109
−3.1% #122Havoc created−2.5% #110
Big plays
−0.046 #96Rushing explosiveness−0.081 #109
−0.137 #135Passing explosiveness−0.015 #114
−0.39 #101Open-field yards per rush−0.48 #113
−0.282 #3Pass explosiveness allowed−0.157 #18
Style and schedule
55% #77Run rate60% #33
−0.5 #21Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.6 #123
Northern Illinois: last 5 games
| L7-28 | Missed | |
| L14-35 | Missed | |
| L17-42 | Covered | |
| L24-28 | Missed | |
| L0-40 | Missed |
Wyoming: last 5 games
| W16-13 | Covered | |
| L0-28 | Missed | |
| W27-10 | Covered | |
| L10-24 | Missed | |
| W21-13 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNIUWYO
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WYO −7.5 | 41.5 | NIU +235 · WYO −290 |
| BEAVER fair line | WYO −6.6 | 45.9 | NIU +197 · WYO −197 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NIU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-7 | Record | 5-3 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 0-3 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-3 |
| 1-6 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 15.1 / 38.6 | Points for / against | 19.5 / 20.0 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | -0.5 |
| -10.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 51.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |