College football scores › Week 7 › Ohio State at Indiana
FinalMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN), 51°, wind 9 mph
BEAVER OSU −3, wonBEAVER Over 50.5, lostBEAVER had OSU 61% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (OSU–IU) | 28–23 | 27–26 | – | 19–15 | |
| Spread | OSU −4.6 | OSU −0.9 | OSU −3 | OSU by 4 | OSU −3 ✓ |
| Total | 51.4 | 53.1 | 50.5 | 34 | Over 50.5 ✗ |
| IU win chance | 39% | – | +120 | Lost |
OSU by 14+
28%
OSU by 1–13
34%
IU by 1–13
27%
IU by 14+
12%
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened OSU −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.194 #8Offense EPA / play+0.212 #6
−0.169 #7Defense EPA / play allowed−0.155 #10
+11.6% #3Offense success rate+4.1% #29
−7.2% #8Defense success rate allowed−7.4% #7
+0.130 #25Rushing EPA / play+0.119 #33
+0.251 #8Passing EPA / play+0.367 #2
−0.112 #22Rush defense EPA allowed−0.164 #10
−0.254 #3Pass defense EPA allowed−0.119 #22
+13.7 #5Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.9 #18
−12.0 #4Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−12.2 #2
Situational
+6.0% #19Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.1% #53
−3.1% #34Passing-down success allowed−2.2% #44
+1.94 #5Points per drive+1.48 #9
−1.22 #4Points per drive allowed−1.04 #7
Trenches
+0.53 #10Line yards per rush+0.26 #40
−0.34 #22Line yards per rush allowed−0.55 #8
−5.6% #22Runs stuffed at the line−3.7% #39
+2.8% #32Opponent runs stuffed+3.1% #29
−4.2% #20Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.6% #15
+2.8% #16Havoc created+2.8% #15
Big plays
−0.003 #77Rushing explosiveness+0.056 #47
+0.260 #24Passing explosiveness+0.344 #7
−0.30 #88Open-field yards per rush+0.65 #7
−0.048 #46Pass explosiveness allowed+0.034 #75
Style and schedule
57% #47Run rate61% #23
−1.7 #34Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.0 #68
Ohio State: last 5 games
| W45-16 | Missed | |
| W31-14 | Covered | |
| W42-19 | Missed | |
| W59-3 | Covered | |
| L23-24 | Covered |
Indiana: last 5 games
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| W47-15 | Covered | |
| W29-23 | Missed | |
| W38-0 | Missed | |
| W55-0 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekOSUIU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OSU −3 | 50.5 | OSU −142 · IU +120 |
| BEAVER fair line | OSU −4.6 | 51.4 | OSU −159 · IU +159 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| OSU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 7-1 |
| 4-0 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 3-0 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 1-7 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 39.3 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 12.0 |
| +25.9 | Avg margin | +21.6 |
| +0.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.4 |
| 60.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.0 |