College football scores › Week 7 › Kentucky at Oklahoma
BEAVER OU −6.5, lostBEAVER Over 43.5, lostBEAVER had OU 70% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UK–OU) | 18–26 | 26–26 | – | 21–13 | |
| Spread | OU −8.1 | OU −0.5 | OU −6.5 | UK by 8 | OU −6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 44.1 | 51.9 | 43.5 | 34 | Over 43.5 ✗ |
| OU win chance | 70% | – | −270 | Lost |
UK by 14+
8%
UK by 1–13
22%
OU by 1–13
35%
OU by 14+
35%
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Oklahoma (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.089 #28Offense EPA / play−0.039 #87
−0.092 #21Defense EPA / play allowed−0.220 #1
+7.7% #12Offense success rate+0.8% #63
+0.3% #67Defense success rate allowed−10.1% #2
+0.169 #15Rushing EPA / play−0.158 #132
+0.020 #53Passing EPA / play+0.140 #25
−0.075 #28Rush defense EPA allowed−0.147 #14
−0.063 #35Pass defense EPA allowed−0.187 #12
+6.5 #24Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.2 #59
−4.1 #31Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−11.2 #5
Situational
+0.2% #47Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.1% #51
+5.7% #117Passing-down success allowed−7.9% #6
+0.53 #35Points per drive+0.59 #32
−0.75 #20Points per drive allowed−1.53 #2
Trenches
+0.56 #9Line yards per rush−0.05 #97
−0.29 #26Line yards per rush allowed−0.42 #16
−6.3% #12Runs stuffed at the line+2.9% #127
+2.9% #30Opponent runs stuffed+3.2% #28
−4.0% #25Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.7% #62
+2.3% #21Havoc created+3.9% #10
Big plays
−0.052 #99Rushing explosiveness−0.308 #137
−0.067 #127Passing explosiveness+0.070 #85
+0.20 #32Open-field yards per rush+0.10 #43
−0.120 #24Pass explosiveness allowed−0.045 #48
Style and schedule
56% #56Run rate55% #76
+8.6 #3Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.6 #6
Kentucky: last 5 games
| W35-34 | Covered | |
| W35-34 | Covered | |
| W45-21 | Covered | |
| W31-21 | Covered | |
| L17-45 | Missed |
Oklahoma: last 5 games
| W27-24 | Covered | |
| L13-41 | Missed | |
| W14-6 | Missed | |
| L10-17 | Missed | |
| W51-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUKOU
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OU −6.5 | 43.5 | UK +220 · OU −270 |
| BEAVER fair line | OU −8.1 | 44.1 | UK +231 · OU −231 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UK | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 5-1 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 7-1 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 32.9 / 24.8 | Points for / against | 21.6 / 17.7 |
| +8.1 | Avg margin | +3.9 |
| +7.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.3 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.3 |