College football scores › Week 6 › Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State
BEAVER KENN +3, wonBEAVER Under 48.5, lostBEAVER had JXST 55% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JXST–KENN) | 25–23 | 27–18 | – | 27–26 | |
| Spread | JXST −1.8 | JXST −9.4 | JXST −3 | JXST by 1 | KENN +3 ✓ |
| Total | 48.4 | 44.7 | 48.5 | 53 | Under 48.5 ✗ |
| KENN win chance | 45% | – | +124 | Lost |
JXST by 14+
22%
JXST by 1–13
33%
KENN by 1–13
30%
KENN by 14+
16%
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened JXST −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.028 #76Offense EPA / play−0.071 #94
+0.072 #84Defense EPA / play allowed+0.124 #110
+0.8% #59Offense success rate−1.5% #87
+4.8% #114Defense success rate allowed+4.5% #110
+0.010 #82Rushing EPA / play+0.046 #65
−0.021 #64Passing EPA / play−0.167 #109
+0.140 #121Rush defense EPA allowed+0.028 #67
−0.008 #48Pass defense EPA allowed+0.217 #122
−6.2 #97Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.5 #114
+5.2 #101Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.0 #73
Situational
−0.8% #59Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.2% #94
−0.1% #69Passing-down success allowed+3.8% #102
−0.37 #83Points per drive−1.00 #110
+0.92 #112Points per drive allowed+0.28 #84
Trenches
−0.01 #90Line yards per rush+0.04 #82
+0.10 #85Line yards per rush allowed+0.17 #96
−0.1% #94Runs stuffed at the line+4.3% #131
−2.1% #101Opponent runs stuffed+0.7% #57
−1.7% #63Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.6% #64
−1.5% #89Havoc created−3.9% #133
Big plays
+0.023 #68Rushing explosiveness+0.031 #65
+0.052 #97Passing explosiveness−0.154 #136
−0.24 #84Open-field yards per rush−0.34 #94
−0.047 #50Pass explosiveness allowed−0.159 #11
Style and schedule
59% #32Run rate55% #75
−16.4 #123Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.6 #65
Jacksonville State: last 5 games
| W23-13 | Covered | |
| W31-27 | Covered | |
| L27-29 | Missed | |
| W49-7 | Covered | |
| L7-33 | Missed |
Kennesaw State: last 4 games
| L14-17 | Covered | |
| L9-42 | Covered | |
| L17-31 | Missed | |
| W47-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekJXSTKENN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | JXST −3 | 48.5 | JXST −148 · KENN +124 |
| BEAVER fair line | JXST −1.8 | 48.4 | JXST −120 · KENN +120 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| JXST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 4-0 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 27.3 / 22.7 | Points for / against | 20.0 / 25.0 |
| +4.6 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| +0.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.0 |
| 58.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.9 |