College football scores › Week 7 › Oklahoma State at Houston
BEAVER HOU −4.5, lostBEAVER Under 62.5, lostBEAVER had HOU 84% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (OKST–HOU) | 21–38 | 26–32 | – | 32–35 | |
| Spread | HOU −16.5 | HOU −5.2 | HOU −4.5 | HOU by 3 | HOU −4.5 ✗ |
| Total | 59.4 | 57.9 | 62.5 | 67 | Under 62.5 ✗ |
| HOU win chance | 84% | – | −185 | Won |
OKST by 14+
3%
OKST by 1–13
13%
HOU by 1–13
28%
HOU by 14+
56%
Spread: 12.0 pts better than Vegas for Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened HOU −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.000 #61Offense EPA / play+0.182 #12
+0.010 #62Defense EPA / play allowed−0.006 #48
+3.9% #32Offense success rate+10.0% #6
+0.4% #68Defense success rate allowed−1.5% #41
−0.021 #92Rushing EPA / play+0.117 #35
+0.059 #41Passing EPA / play+0.296 #6
−0.021 #44Rush defense EPA allowed−0.051 #34
−0.052 #39Pass defense EPA allowed+0.024 #63
+2.9 #48Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+8.2 #15
−1.0 #55Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.5 #30
Situational
−3.4% #88Passing-down success (3rd & long)+13.0% #2
−2.6% #40Passing-down success allowed−2.7% #37
+0.50 #37Points per drive+1.34 #14
−0.19 #47Points per drive allowed−0.43 #36
Trenches
+0.19 #57Line yards per rush+0.51 #12
+0.01 #70Line yards per rush allowed−0.21 #32
−2.7% #57Runs stuffed at the line−6.0% #18
+1.4% #50Opponent runs stuffed+0.6% #62
−4.8% #12Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.9% #3
−0.6% #70Havoc created+3.1% #13
Big plays
−0.203 #133Rushing explosiveness−0.166 #128
+0.075 #81Passing explosiveness+0.147 #58
−0.24 #81Open-field yards per rush−0.33 #95
+0.006 #65Pass explosiveness allowed+0.068 #90
Style and schedule
54% #87Run rate62% #17
−7.0 #70Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.0 #53
Oklahoma State: last 5 games
| W42-28 | Covered | |
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| W39-31 | Covered | |
| L10-24 | Missed |
Houston: last 5 games
| W35-16 | Covered | |
| W27-17 | Missed | |
| W42-28 | Missed | |
| L26-28 | Covered | |
| W77-6 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekOKSTHOU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | HOU −4.5 | 62.5 | OKST +154 · HOU −185 |
| BEAVER fair line | HOU −16.5 | 59.4 | OKST +544 · HOU −544 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| OKST | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-2 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 40.0 / 23.7 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 21.0 |
| +16.3 | Avg margin | +15.0 |
| +7.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.0 |
| 67.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.2 |