College football scores › Week 8 › California at SMU
BEAVER SMU −18.5, wonBEAVER Over 55.5, wonBEAVER had SMU 89% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CAL–SMU) | 18–38 | 16–35 | – | 20–59 | |
| Spread | SMU −19.8 | SMU −19.3 | SMU −18.5 | SMU by 39 | SMU −18.5 ✓ |
| Total | 56.1 | 51.6 | 55.5 | 79 | Over 55.5 ✓ |
| SMU win chance | 89% | – | −1050 | Won |
CAL by 14+
2%
CAL by 1–13
9%
SMU by 1–13
25%
SMU by 14+
64%
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for SMU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened SMU −16.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.121 #109Offense EPA / play+0.052 #37
+0.095 #98Defense EPA / play allowed−0.011 #44
−4.0% #103Offense success rate+4.9% #23
−0.2% #58Defense success rate allowed−2.3% #38
−0.107 #128Rushing EPA / play−0.012 #91
−0.089 #89Passing EPA / play+0.132 #25
+0.183 #130Rush defense EPA allowed−0.008 #54
+0.024 #61Pass defense EPA allowed−0.031 #44
−4.5 #90Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #50
+4.4 #95Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.8 #47
Situational
−4.3% #97Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.0% #14
−4.3% #24Passing-down success allowed−5.9% #14
−0.65 #100Points per drive+0.27 #52
+0.43 #90Points per drive allowed−0.10 #52
Trenches
−0.27 #124Line yards per rush−0.16 #115
+0.39 #123Line yards per rush allowed−0.29 #26
+1.4% #114Runs stuffed at the line+2.5% #127
−6.5% #136Opponent runs stuffed+3.1% #33
−0.1% #102Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.1% #49
−2.5% #109Havoc created+2.5% #23
Big plays
−0.011 #86Rushing explosiveness−0.028 #90
+0.055 #99Passing explosiveness+0.183 #40
−0.52 #120Open-field yards per rush−0.04 #56
+0.216 #134Pass explosiveness allowed+0.114 #117
Style and schedule
44% #137Run rate51% #117
−4.2 #54Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.7 #73
California: last 5 games
| L7-41 | Missed | |
| W25-20 | Covered | |
| L31-39 | Missed | |
| L10-24 | Missed | |
| W49-7 | Missed |
SMU: last 5 games
| W23-13 | Push | |
| W25-16 | Missed | |
| W34-24 | Missed | |
| L31-41 | Missed | |
| W56-10 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCALSMU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | SMU −18.5 | 55.5 | CAL +675 · SMU −1050 |
| BEAVER fair line | SMU −19.8 | 56.1 | CAL +817 · SMU −817 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CAL | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Home | 5-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-6 | Against the spread | 2-3-2 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 23.4 / 31.6 | Points for / against | 36.4 / 21.1 |
| -8.2 | Avg margin | +15.3 |
| -9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.9 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |