College football scores › Week 8 › Eastern Michigan at Ohio
BEAVER OHIO −10, lostBEAVER Over 48.5, lostBEAVER had OHIO 78% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–OHIO) | 20–33 | 19–32 | – | 20–24 | |
| Spread | OHIO −12.5 | OHIO −12.8 | OHIO −10 | OHIO by 4 | OHIO −10 ✗ |
| Total | 53.4 | 51.7 | 48.5 | 44 | Over 48.5 ✗ |
| OHIO win chance | 78% | – | −485 | Won |
EMU by 14+
5%
EMU by 1–13
17%
OHIO by 1–13
32%
OHIO by 14+
46%
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened OHIO −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.150 #122Offense EPA / play+0.000 #67
+0.156 #120Defense EPA / play allowed+0.102 #102
−5.2% #116Offense success rate+1.7% #51
+5.9% #120Defense success rate allowed+3.1% #93
−0.100 #124Rushing EPA / play+0.103 #37
−0.166 #111Passing EPA / play−0.063 #81
+0.049 #81Rush defense EPA allowed+0.048 #80
+0.271 #131Pass defense EPA allowed+0.232 #124
−10.1 #120Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.4 #86
+8.0 #118Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.5 #87
Situational
−1.5% #64Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.5% #57
+6.8% #123Passing-down success allowed+7.5% #127
−1.11 #114Points per drive−0.30 #81
+0.97 #116Points per drive allowed+0.61 #103
Trenches
−0.18 #117Line yards per rush+0.44 #20
+0.08 #79Line yards per rush allowed+0.06 #74
+0.9% #106Runs stuffed at the line−7.3% #9
+1.1% #49Opponent runs stuffed−1.9% #99
+1.5% #123Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.7% #39
−2.2% #108Havoc created+0.1% #51
Big plays
−0.005 #83Rushing explosiveness−0.027 #89
−0.024 #114Passing explosiveness+0.058 #97
−0.61 #125Open-field yards per rush−0.51 #118
+0.072 #92Pass explosiveness allowed+0.010 #68
Style and schedule
49% #125Run rate66% #10
−15.1 #124Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−16.2 #131
Eastern Michigan: last 5 games
| L14-34 | Missed | |
| W25-23 | Missed | |
| W38-14 | Covered | |
| W29-3 | Covered | |
| L10-54 | Missed |
Ohio: last 5 games
| W48-7 | Covered | |
| W31-14 | Covered | |
| W13-10 | Missed | |
| W35-7 | Missed | |
| L36-41 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekEMUOHIO
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OHIO −10 | 48.5 | EMU +370 · OHIO −485 |
| BEAVER fair line | OHIO −12.5 | 53.4 | EMU +362 · OHIO −362 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| EMU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | Record | 6-2 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 2-3 | Away | 2-2 |
| 4-5 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 2-7 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 21.3 / 25.7 | Points for / against | 29.6 / 21.9 |
| -4.3 | Avg margin | +7.8 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.9 |
| 64.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.4 |