College football scores › Week 6 › Minnesota at Purdue
BEAVER MINN −2.5, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had MINN 59% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MINN–PUR) | 30–26 | 32–23 | – | 13–41 | |
| Spread | MINN −3.6 | MINN −8.9 | MINN −2.5 | PUR by 28 | MINN −2.5 ✗ |
| Total | 55.4 | 55.7 | 50.5 | 54 | Over 50.5 ✓ |
| PUR win chance | 41% | – | +120 | Won |
MINN by 14+
26%
MINN by 1–13
33%
PUR by 1–13
27%
PUR by 14+
14%
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.091 #104Offense EPA / play+0.106 #23
−0.034 #44Defense EPA / play allowed+0.115 #108
+0.2% #67Offense success rate+3.7% #32
−1.1% #55Defense success rate allowed+3.7% #97
−0.096 #120Rushing EPA / play+0.043 #67
−0.062 #80Passing EPA / play+0.191 #13
+0.035 #74Rush defense EPA allowed+0.101 #105
−0.032 #39Pass defense EPA allowed+0.133 #96
−0.6 #67Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.9 #50
−2.6 #42Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.9 #91
Situational
−8.6% #122Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.7% #50
+2.0% #90Passing-down success allowed+7.5% #130
+0.58 #32Points per drive+0.28 #52
−0.03 #63Points per drive allowed+1.05 #119
Trenches
−0.57 #135Line yards per rush+0.07 #75
−0.06 #57Line yards per rush allowed+0.21 #104
+3.7% #130Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #46
+1.2% #52Opponent runs stuffed−2.4% #106
−2.2% #51Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.3% #33
+5.5% #2Havoc created−1.3% #84
Big plays
−0.170 #126Rushing explosiveness−0.001 #76
−0.046 #123Passing explosiveness+0.067 #89
−0.47 #113Open-field yards per rush−0.34 #95
−0.038 #54Pass explosiveness allowed+0.153 #119
Style and schedule
49% #126Run rate53% #102
−9.1 #82Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+3.5 #10
Minnesota: last 5 games
| W20-14 | Covered | |
| W27-24 | Covered | |
| W41-7 | Covered | |
| L13-38 | Missed | |
| W59-7 | Covered |
Purdue: last 5 games
| W24-17 | Covered | |
| L10-49 | Missed | |
| L38-52 | Missed | |
| L36-38 | Covered | |
| W44-19 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMINNPUR
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MINN −2.5 | 50.5 | MINN −142 · PUR +120 |
| BEAVER fair line | MINN −3.6 | 55.4 | MINN −143 · PUR +143 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MINN | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 26.6 / 20.1 | Points for / against | 31.3 / 32.3 |
| +6.4 | Avg margin | -1.0 |
| +0.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.4 |
| 54.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |