College football scores › Week 8 › Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech
BEAVER LT −13.5, wonBEAVER Over 44.5, lostBEAVER had LT 81% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ODU–LT) | 16–30 | 16–33 | – | 0–26 | |
| Spread | LT −14.0 | LT −16.7 | LT −13.5 | LT by 26 | LT −13.5 ✓ |
| Total | 45.8 | 49.1 | 44.5 | 26 | Over 44.5 ✗ |
| LT win chance | 81% | – | −550 | Won |
ODU by 14+
4%
ODU by 1–13
15%
LT by 1–13
32%
LT by 14+
50%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened LT −8.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.262 #138Offense EPA / play−0.020 #75
−0.050 #36Defense EPA / play allowed−0.005 #45
−10.6% #138Offense success rate−2.5% #89
−1.4% #43Defense success rate allowed−2.0% #41
−0.218 #137Rushing EPA / play−0.011 #89
−0.357 #135Passing EPA / play−0.003 #59
−0.035 #42Rush defense EPA allowed+0.034 #75
−0.043 #39Pass defense EPA allowed−0.028 #45
−12.1 #131Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.6 #69
+2.6 #80Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.0 #84
Situational
−4.2% #96Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.3% #49
−1.7% #47Passing-down success allowed−0.9% #54
−1.50 #132Points per drive+0.14 #59
+0.20 #74Points per drive allowed+0.18 #71
Trenches
−0.86 #138Line yards per rush−0.23 #120
+0.01 #66Line yards per rush allowed−0.26 #31
+9.0% #138Runs stuffed at the line+1.7% #118
+0.7% #55Opponent runs stuffed+4.3% #21
+5.3% #138Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #76
+0.7% #40Havoc created+2.9% #18
Big plays
+0.014 #73Rushing explosiveness−0.003 #81
+0.279 #12Passing explosiveness+0.256 #19
−0.13 #73Open-field yards per rush+0.10 #40
−0.019 #51Pass explosiveness allowed+0.123 #120
Style and schedule
61% #21Run rate58% #44
−8.3 #84Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.8 #98
Old Dominion: last 5 games
| L15-23 | Missed | |
| W10-3 | Covered | |
| L10-42 | Missed | |
| L20-46 | Missed | |
| L17-20 | Missed |
Louisiana Tech: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekODULT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LT −13.5 | 44.5 | ODU +410 · LT −550 |
| BEAVER fair line | LT −14 | 45.8 | ODU +438 · LT −438 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ODU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 1-4 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 1-3 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 1-7 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 15.5 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 32.3 / 21.0 |
| -11.2 | Avg margin | +11.3 |
| -10.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.3 |
| 53.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |