College football scores › Week 6 › Stanford at Notre Dame
BEAVER ND −39.5, wonBEAVER Over 54.5, wonBEAVER had ND 100% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (STAN–ND) | 7–49 | 8–46 | – | 7–58 | |
| Spread | ND −42.2 | ND −37.7 | ND −39.5 | ND by 51 | ND −39.5 ✓ |
| Total | 56.3 | 53.9 | 54.5 | 65 | Over 54.5 ✓ |
| ND win chance | 100% | – | – | Won |
STAN by 14+
0%
STAN by 1–13
0%
ND by 1–13
4%
ND by 14+
96%
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened ND −38.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.003 #65Offense EPA / play+0.229 #5
+0.162 #125Defense EPA / play allowed−0.187 #5
−3.5% #99Offense success rate+12.0% #3
+5.0% #115Defense success rate allowed−8.8% #5
−0.020 #94Rushing EPA / play+0.152 #17
+0.033 #48Passing EPA / play+0.315 #5
+0.145 #123Rush defense EPA allowed−0.167 #10
+0.170 #115Pass defense EPA allowed−0.203 #10
−6.3 #98Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+15.0 #4
+7.8 #120Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−11.6 #3
Situational
−7.5% #115Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.1% #69
+8.8% #133Passing-down success allowed−6.1% #10
−0.79 #100Points per drive+2.85 #2
+1.09 #122Points per drive allowed−1.12 #6
Trenches
−0.17 #114Line yards per rush+0.35 #27
+0.25 #112Line yards per rush allowed−0.43 #16
+2.6% #124Runs stuffed at the line−6.0% #15
−4.1% #124Opponent runs stuffed+4.8% #15
−1.9% #57Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.0% #10
−1.9% #99Havoc created+6.2% #1
Big plays
+0.026 #67Rushing explosiveness−0.101 #114
+0.212 #34Passing explosiveness+0.005 #110
−0.17 #74Open-field yards per rush−0.42 #106
−0.037 #55Pass explosiveness allowed−0.230 #4
Style and schedule
49% #127Run rate57% #54
+3.6 #9Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.8 #20
Stanford: last 5 games
| L3-57 | Missed | |
| W34-27 | Covered | |
| L7-35 | Missed | |
| L6-45 | Missed | |
| W37-27 | Covered |
Notre Dame: last 5 games
| W37-26 | Missed | |
| W49-10 | Covered | |
| W27-10 | Missed | |
| W52-0 | Covered | |
| W41-13 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSTANND
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ND −39.5 | 54.5 | – |
| BEAVER fair line | ND −42.2 | 56.3 | STAN +19900 · ND −19900 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| STAN | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 4-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 19.9 / 35.5 | Points for / against | 41.1 / 13.4 |
| -15.6 | Avg margin | +27.7 |
| -7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.1 |
| 52.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.0 |