College football scores › Week 6 › Illinois at Michigan State
BEAVER MSU +2.5, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, wonBEAVER had ILL 56% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ILL–MSU) | 26–24 | 23–25 | – | 38–37 | |
| Spread | ILL −2.2 | MSU −2.1 | ILL −2.5 | ILL by 1 | MSU +2.5 ✓ |
| Total | 50.1 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 75 | Over 48.5 ✓ |
| MSU win chance | 44% | – | +120 | Lost |
ILL by 14+
23%
ILL by 1–13
33%
MSU by 1–13
29%
MSU by 14+
15%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Michigan State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.088 #28Offense EPA / play−0.108 #110
+0.136 #117Defense EPA / play allowed+0.026 #68
+4.6% #24Offense success rate+2.1% #49
+2.7% #92Defense success rate allowed−1.9% #42
+0.137 #24Rushing EPA / play−0.056 #107
+0.102 #32Passing EPA / play−0.146 #107
+0.046 #81Rush defense EPA allowed−0.008 #51
+0.199 #120Pass defense EPA allowed+0.053 #72
+1.7 #52Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.5 #93
−0.3 #60Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.0 #26
Situational
+5.7% #16Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.5% #88
+5.1% #114Passing-down success allowed−0.5% #61
+0.29 #50Points per drive−0.48 #92
+0.26 #83Points per drive allowed−0.74 #18
Trenches
+0.31 #33Line yards per rush+0.03 #87
−0.22 #31Line yards per rush allowed−0.16 #44
−5.8% #19Runs stuffed at the line−0.6% #88
+0.6% #59Opponent runs stuffed+5.0% #13
−4.5% #16Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.8% #116
−2.5% #111Havoc created−1.2% #83
Big plays
+0.081 #41Rushing explosiveness−0.178 #128
+0.113 #65Passing explosiveness−0.079 #127
+0.30 #22Open-field yards per rush−0.49 #115
−0.100 #30Pass explosiveness allowed+0.184 #124
Style and schedule
52% #112Run rate58% #45
−1.6 #26Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.5 #2
Illinois: last 5 games
| L17-24 | Missed | |
| L19-42 | Covered | |
| W48-10 | Covered | |
| L27-31 | Missed | |
| W42-23 | Missed |
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L3-31 | Missed | |
| L13-31 | Missed | |
| L10-27 | Covered | |
| W35-7 | Covered | |
| W30-20 | Push |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekILLMSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ILL −2.5 | 48.5 | ILL −142 · MSU +120 |
| BEAVER fair line | ILL −2.2 | 50.1 | ILL −125 · MSU +125 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ILL | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-6 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 0-5 |
| 3-2 | Home | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 4-3-1 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 30.3 / 25.3 | Points for / against | 19.9 / 25.8 |
| +5.0 | Avg margin | -5.9 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 60.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.2 |