College football scores › Week 8 › Western Michigan at Toledo
BEAVER WMU +3, lostBEAVER Over 47.5, wonBEAVER had TOL 56% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WMU–TOL) | 24–26 | 22–26 | – | 38–45 | |
| Spread | TOL −2.2 | TOL −4.4 | TOL −3 | TOL by 7 | WMU +3 ✗ |
| Total | 49.9 | 47.9 | 47.5 | 83 | Over 47.5 ✓ |
| TOL win chance | 56% | – | −142 | Won |
WMU by 14+
15%
WMU by 1–13
29%
TOL by 1–13
33%
TOL by 14+
23%
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened TOL −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.020 #74Offense EPA / play−0.020 #73
+0.054 #81Defense EPA / play allowed+0.000 #51
−0.3% #71Offense success rate−2.2% #87
+3.9% #102Defense success rate allowed−2.6% #34
+0.056 #54Rushing EPA / play−0.023 #96
−0.096 #90Passing EPA / play+0.009 #57
+0.014 #68Rush defense EPA allowed−0.046 #39
+0.100 #89Pass defense EPA allowed+0.111 #94
−6.3 #102Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.1 #63
−2.4 #42Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.9 #90
Situational
−5.0% #100Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.3% #114
+4.9% #114Passing-down success allowed−1.9% #45
−0.64 #98Points per drive+0.01 #66
+0.19 #72Points per drive allowed+0.36 #84
Trenches
−0.00 #87Line yards per rush+0.09 #71
+0.20 #102Line yards per rush allowed−0.06 #58
−3.4% #50Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #47
−3.0% #110Opponent runs stuffed+1.2% #48
−3.4% #29Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.8% #59
−1.8% #100Havoc created−1.7% #96
Big plays
+0.023 #70Rushing explosiveness+0.054 #49
−0.103 #132Passing explosiveness+0.177 #43
−0.44 #107Open-field yards per rush−0.15 #74
−0.001 #62Pass explosiveness allowed+0.093 #107
Style and schedule
67% #7Run rate55% #73
−12.6 #111Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−16.2 #129
Western Michigan: last 5 games
| W21-14 | Missed | |
| W38-7 | Covered | |
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| L7-32 | Missed | |
| W28-21 | Missed |
Toledo: last 5 games
| W34-14 | Covered | |
| L8-23 | Missed | |
| W39-24 | Missed | |
| W41-16 | Covered | |
| W49-48 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWMUTOL
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TOL −3 | 47.5 | WMU +120 · TOL −142 |
| BEAVER fair line | TOL −2.2 | 49.9 | WMU +125 · TOL −125 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WMU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 6-2 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-3-1 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 26.6 / 20.4 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 25.4 |
| +6.2 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| +2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.7 |
| 55.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |