BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › South Carolina at Florida
South Carolina4-3away
38
FinalBen Hill Griffin Stadium, 83°, wind 14 mph
FloridaNo. 175-2home
19
BEAVER SC +10.5, wonBEAVER Under 58.5, wonBEAVER had FLA 66% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (SC–FLA)25–3131–43–38–19
SpreadFLA −6.6FLA −12.0FLA −10.5SC by 19SC +10.5 ✓
Total55.873.358.557Under 58.5 ✓
FLA win chance66%–−455Lost
SC by 14+
10%
SC by 1–13
24%
FLA by 1–13
34%
FLA by 14+
32%

Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for South Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened FLA −14.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.054 #38Offense EPA / play+0.181 #8
+0.044 #74Defense EPA / play allowed−0.037 #42
+2.1% #47Offense success rate+7.2% #11
−2.2% #38Defense success rate allowed+0.0% #64
+0.169 #12Rushing EPA / play+0.159 #14
−0.030 #67Passing EPA / play+0.204 #10
−0.082 #23Rush defense EPA allowed+0.000 #53
+0.155 #106Pass defense EPA allowed+0.020 #63
+5.5 #25Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+12.8 #7
−1.1 #53Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.6 #58
Situational
−3.1% #82Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.5% #22
+0.4% #81Passing-down success allowed+0.6% #83
+0.99 #19Points per drive+2.11 #7
−0.39 #39Points per drive allowed−0.05 #60
Trenches
+0.67 #3Line yards per rush+0.10 #70
−0.51 #10Line yards per rush allowed+0.08 #80
−4.7% #30Runs stuffed at the line−2.3% #65
+5.1% #12Opponent runs stuffed−3.2% #117
−2.2% #52Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.3% #8
−1.4% #86Havoc created+1.9% #25
Big plays
+0.137 #20Rushing explosiveness+0.080 #42
+0.076 #84Passing explosiveness+0.105 #71
+1.13 #1Open-field yards per rush+0.40 #15
+0.122 #110Pass explosiveness allowed−0.046 #52
Style and schedule
56% #68Run rate60% #26
−1.9 #30Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.3 #33

South Carolina: last 5 games

L34-35
vsKentucky
Missed
L18-49
atAlabama
Missed
L34-41
vsMississippi State
Missed
W45-9
vsTowson
Missed
W57-0
vsKent State
Covered

Florida: last 5 games

L17-45
atMissouri
Missed
W52-28
vsOle Miss
Covered
W44-39
atAuburn
Covered
W52-3
vsCampbell
Missed
W66-21
vsFlorida Atlantic
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.14+0.22+0.30Entering week123456South Carolina · 1: +0.11South Carolina · 2: +0.16South Carolina · 3: +0.01South Carolina · 4: +0.01South Carolina · 5: +0.01South Carolina · 6: +0.01Florida · 1: +0.11Florida · 2: +0.16Florida · 3: +0.21Florida · 4: +0.25Florida · 5: +0.27Florida · 6: +0.22
● South Carolina● Florida