College football scores › Week 6 › Florida State at Louisville
BEAVER LOU −3.5, wonBEAVER Over 59.5, wonBEAVER had LOU 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FSU–LOU) | 28–33 | 31–32 | – | 20–44 | |
| Spread | LOU −4.9 | LOU −1.1 | LOU −3.5 | LOU by 24 | LOU −3.5 ✓ |
| Total | 61.9 | 63.2 | 59.5 | 64 | Over 59.5 ✓ |
| LOU win chance | 62% | – | −192 | Won |
FSU by 14+
12%
FSU by 1–13
26%
LOU by 1–13
33%
LOU by 14+
29%
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Louisville (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.140 #18Offense EPA / play+0.121 #20
+0.090 #96Defense EPA / play allowed−0.001 #57
+3.8% #31Offense success rate+4.5% #26
+0.4% #67Defense success rate allowed−3.0% #30
+0.242 #4Rushing EPA / play+0.107 #37
+0.101 #33Passing EPA / play+0.134 #24
+0.020 #63Rush defense EPA allowed−0.058 #33
+0.111 #91Pass defense EPA allowed+0.139 #97
+3.6 #41Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.7 #20
−3.7 #37Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.4 #76
Situational
+6.8% #9Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.0% #81
−1.7% #49Passing-down success allowed−2.3% #46
+0.37 #44Points per drive+0.27 #54
−0.47 #35Points per drive allowed−0.19 #46
Trenches
+0.57 #7Line yards per rush+0.06 #79
+0.11 #87Line yards per rush allowed+0.17 #97
−6.5% #11Runs stuffed at the line−0.5% #90
−1.2% #90Opponent runs stuffed−6.9% #138
−2.6% #45Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.3% #112
−0.3% #62Havoc created−1.9% #100
Big plays
+0.210 #5Rushing explosiveness+0.150 #17
+0.385 #6Passing explosiveness+0.175 #40
+0.38 #17Open-field yards per rush+1.10 #2
−0.008 #64Pass explosiveness allowed+0.334 #138
Style and schedule
63% #15Run rate55% #72
−1.9 #28Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.5 #34
Florida State: last 5 games
| W38-7 | Covered | |
| W34-7 | Missed | |
| L36-50 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Push | |
| W34-17 | Missed |
Louisville: last 5 games
| L28-31 | Missed | |
| L27-30 | Missed | |
| W41-31 | Covered | |
| W59-13 | Covered | |
| L38-41 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFSULOU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LOU −3.5 | 59.5 | FSU +160 · LOU −192 |
| BEAVER fair line | LOU −4.9 | 61.9 | FSU +162 · LOU −162 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FSU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 31.6 / 27.9 | Points for / against | 38.7 / 27.4 |
| +3.7 | Avg margin | +11.3 |
| -0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.1 |
| 62.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.6 |