College football scores › Week 6 › North Carolina at Pittsburgh
BEAVER PITT −3.5, lostBEAVER Over 46.5, lostBEAVER had PITT 69% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNC–PITT) | 21–29 | 16–32 | – | 21–17 | |
| Spread | PITT −7.7 | PITT −16.2 | PITT −3.5 | UNC by 4 | PITT −3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 50.2 | 47.5 | 46.5 | 38 | Over 46.5 ✗ |
| PITT win chance | 69% | – | −175 | Lost |
UNC by 14+
9%
UNC by 1–13
23%
PITT by 1–13
34%
PITT by 14+
35%
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.050 #41Offense EPA / play+0.043 #45
−0.008 #54Defense EPA / play allowed−0.069 #29
+5.1% #19Offense success rate−1.4% #84
+1.3% #77Defense success rate allowed−5.8% #13
+0.082 #49Rushing EPA / play+0.060 #58
+0.039 #46Passing EPA / play+0.019 #57
+0.087 #101Rush defense EPA allowed−0.167 #9
−0.052 #32Pass defense EPA allowed−0.001 #52
−1.9 #73Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.4 #37
−4.4 #28Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.1 #24
Situational
+3.6% #31Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.3% #46
−3.1% #34Passing-down success allowed−6.5% #9
+0.01 #66Points per drive+0.95 #20
−0.52 #31Points per drive allowed−0.74 #19
Trenches
+0.62 #5Line yards per rush+0.28 #41
+0.31 #119Line yards per rush allowed−0.80 #3
−3.8% #43Runs stuffed at the line−0.8% #86
−5.0% #131Opponent runs stuffed+6.3% #7
−2.0% #56Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.7% #44
−2.2% #104Havoc created+1.1% #33
Big plays
−0.055 #101Rushing explosiveness+0.065 #48
+0.104 #72Passing explosiveness+0.281 #18
−0.23 #83Open-field yards per rush−0.05 #57
−0.130 #21Pass explosiveness allowed+0.086 #98
Style and schedule
54% #95Run rate53% #103
+2.0 #14Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.8 #91
North Carolina: last 4 games
| L26-37 | Covered | |
| L20-28 | Missed | |
| W35-3 | Missed | |
| W15-10 | Covered |
Pittsburgh: last 5 games
| W35-33 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| W27-13 | Covered | |
| W12-7 | Missed | |
| W59-14 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUNCPITT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | PITT −3.5 | 46.5 | UNC +145 · PITT −175 |
| BEAVER fair line | PITT −7.7 | 50.2 | UNC +219 · PITT −219 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UNC | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-3 |
| 1-2 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 24.4 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 20.9 |
| +3.6 | Avg margin | +10.8 |
| +2.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.1 |
| 57.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.2 |