BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Ball State at Bowling Green
Ball State3-5away
32
FinalDoyt L. Perry Stadium, 49°, wind 9 mph
Bowling Green2-6home
31
BEAVER BALL +6.5, wonBEAVER Under 46.5, lostBEAVER had BGSU 57% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (BALL–BGSU)21–2422–30–32–31
SpreadBGSU −2.8BGSU −7.5BGSU −6.5BALL by 1BALL +6.5 ✓
Total44.451.546.563Under 46.5 ✗
BGSU win chance57%–−238Lost
BALL by 14+
14%
BALL by 1–13
29%
BGSU by 1–13
33%
BGSU by 14+
24%

Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened BGSU −8.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.110 #109Offense EPA / play−0.226 #134
+0.203 #134Defense EPA / play allowed+0.072 #85
−7.8% #130Offense success rate−5.9% #120
+4.2% #106Defense success rate allowed+4.5% #109
−0.083 #114Rushing EPA / play−0.199 #137
−0.079 #90Passing EPA / play−0.189 #115
+0.175 #132Rush defense EPA allowed+0.144 #124
+0.240 #124Pass defense EPA allowed+0.004 #56
−9.5 #118Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−13.2 #135
+11.3 #130Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.4 #101
Situational
−5.5% #108Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.5% #128
+8.7% #130Passing-down success allowed−2.0% #46
−1.15 #116Points per drive−1.19 #119
+1.71 #134Points per drive allowed+1.17 #124
Trenches
−0.27 #122Line yards per rush−0.40 #131
+0.11 #87Line yards per rush allowed+0.40 #125
+1.4% #108Runs stuffed at the line+2.7% #125
+1.7% #46Opponent runs stuffed−1.6% #90
+1.6% #123Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.1% #121
−2.6% #112Havoc created−2.2% #104
Big plays
+0.101 #30Rushing explosiveness−0.283 #136
+0.161 #48Passing explosiveness+0.051 #97
−0.03 #57Open-field yards per rush−0.77 #136
+0.065 #88Pass explosiveness allowed+0.031 #74
Style and schedule
53% #102Run rate60% #32
−3.5 #42Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.3 #73

Ball State: last 5 games

L14-45
atNorthwestern
Covered
L24-39
vsToledo
Covered
L13-26
atKent State
Missed
L15-51
atLiberty
Missed
W41-17
vsStony Brook
Covered

Bowling Green: last 5 games

W38-10
vsSacramento State
Covered
W24-20
atMiami (OH)
Covered
L6-14
vsSouth Florida
Covered
L7-55
atIowa State
Missed
L7-56
atNebraska
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.43−0.32−0.20−0.08+0.03Entering week1234567Ball State · 1: −0.22Ball State · 2: −0.28Ball State · 3: −0.29Ball State · 4: −0.34Ball State · 5: −0.33Ball State · 6: −0.30Ball State · 7: −0.31Bowling Green · 1: −0.22Bowling Green · 2: −0.30Bowling Green · 3: −0.39Bowling Green · 4: −0.40Bowling Green · 5: −0.38Bowling Green · 6: −0.31Bowling Green · 7: −0.30
● Ball State● Bowling Green