College football scores › Week 8 › Middle Tennessee at FIU
BEAVER FIU −10, lostBEAVER Under 45.5, lostBEAVER had FIU 78% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MTSU–FIU) | 16–28 | 14–29 | – | 26–23 | |
| Spread | FIU −11.9 | FIU −15.4 | FIU −10 | MTSU by 3 | FIU −10 ✗ |
| Total | 44.3 | 43.5 | 45.5 | 49 | Under 45.5 ✗ |
| FIU win chance | 78% | – | −410 | Lost |
MTSU by 14+
5%
MTSU by 1–13
17%
FIU by 1–13
33%
FIU by 14+
45%
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for FIU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.126 #111Offense EPA / play−0.167 #127
+0.155 #119Defense EPA / play allowed+0.016 #65
−5.8% #123Offense success rate−6.0% #125
+7.4% #132Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #55
−0.063 #112Rushing EPA / play−0.160 #132
−0.208 #122Passing EPA / play−0.148 #105
+0.157 #124Rush defense EPA allowed+0.011 #66
+0.151 #104Pass defense EPA allowed+0.026 #62
−12.0 #130Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.8 #129
+9.3 #126Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.9 #56
Situational
−5.9% #108Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.3% #104
+0.9% #76Passing-down success allowed−3.2% #35
−1.44 #129Points per drive−1.59 #137
+1.17 #124Points per drive allowed−0.05 #54
Trenches
−0.07 #99Line yards per rush−0.30 #128
+0.58 #138Line yards per rush allowed−0.03 #64
+1.2% #110Runs stuffed at the line+0.5% #100
−4.8% #125Opponent runs stuffed−1.0% #84
−0.2% #97Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.1% #101
−6.1% #137Havoc created−0.4% #63
Big plays
+0.033 #64Rushing explosiveness−0.221 #135
−0.025 #115Passing explosiveness+0.103 #70
−0.52 #119Open-field yards per rush−0.98 #138
−0.142 #15Pass explosiveness allowed+0.036 #83
Style and schedule
46% #134Run rate54% #90
−17.5 #133Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−16.2 #130
Middle Tennessee: last 5 games
| W33-30 | Covered | |
| L0-55 | Missed | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| W27-20 | Covered | |
| L26-28 | Covered |
FIU: last 5 games
| L24-27 | Push | |
| W22-3 | Covered | |
| W20-3 | Missed | |
| L10-16 | Missed | |
| W33-20 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMTSUFIU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FIU −10 | 45.5 | MTSU +320 · FIU −410 |
| BEAVER fair line | FIU −11.9 | 44.3 | MTSU +349 · FIU −349 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MTSU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 23.3 / 27.6 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 16.3 |
| -4.3 | Avg margin | +3.9 |
| +0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 58.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.9 |