College football scores › Week 6 › James Madison at Georgia Southern
BEAVER JMU −7.5, lostBEAVER Under 51.5, wonBEAVER had JMU 74% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JMU–GASO) | 29–19 | 34–18 | – | 27–24 | |
| Spread | JMU −10.2 | JMU −15.8 | JMU −7.5 | JMU by 3 | JMU −7.5 ✗ |
| Total | 48.1 | 51.8 | 51.5 | 51 | Under 51.5 ✓ |
| GASO win chance | 26% | – | +235 | Lost |
JMU by 14+
41%
JMU by 1–13
34%
GASO by 1–13
20%
GASO by 14+
6%
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.041 #47Offense EPA / play+0.005 #64
+0.010 #59Defense EPA / play allowed+0.085 #93
+0.5% #64Offense success rate−0.0% #71
−1.1% #54Defense success rate allowed+1.1% #75
+0.121 #29Rushing EPA / play−0.027 #98
−0.011 #62Passing EPA / play+0.008 #59
+0.016 #61Rush defense EPA allowed+0.054 #88
+0.006 #56Pass defense EPA allowed+0.152 #104
+6.1 #21Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.4 #84
−1.2 #51Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.6 #89
Situational
+1.2% #47Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.2% #61
+3.1% #95Passing-down success allowed+0.8% #85
+0.71 #25Points per drive−0.46 #89
+0.05 #66Points per drive allowed+0.48 #98
Trenches
+0.11 #69Line yards per rush+0.12 #65
+0.07 #77Line yards per rush allowed+0.07 #79
−2.5% #61Runs stuffed at the line−2.3% #64
−3.2% #116Opponent runs stuffed+0.0% #71
−3.6% #24Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.1% #101
−1.1% #77Havoc created−0.4% #66
Big plays
+0.061 #49Rushing explosiveness−0.027 #87
+0.043 #100Passing explosiveness−0.043 #122
+0.49 #12Open-field yards per rush−0.11 #66
+0.046 #89Pass explosiveness allowed−0.166 #10
Style and schedule
57% #49Run rate47% #132
−19.5 #135Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.6 #74
James Madison: last 5 games
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W46-20 | Covered | |
| W26-13 | Covered | |
| W87-3 | Covered | |
| W20-13 | Covered |
Georgia Southern: last 5 games
| W31-24 | Covered | |
| L28-42 | Covered | |
| L27-31 | Missed | |
| L7-22 | Covered | |
| W31-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekJMUGASO
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | JMU −7.5 | 51.5 | JMU −290 · GASO +235 |
| BEAVER fair line | JMU −10.2 | 48.1 | JMU −286 · GASO +286 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| JMU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 3-1 | Away | 2-2 |
| 6-2 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 41.4 / 18.2 | Points for / against | 24.4 / 23.0 |
| +23.1 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| +10.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.5 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.1 |