College football scores › Week 6 › South Alabama at Arkansas State
BEAVER ARST −3, lostBEAVER Under 60.5, lostBEAVER had ARST 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USA–ARST) | 27–33 | 29–28 | – | 56–49 | |
| Spread | ARST −6.1 | USA −1.6 | ARST −3 | USA by 7 | ARST −3 ✗ |
| Total | 60.1 | 56.9 | 60.5 | 105 | Under 60.5 ✗ |
| ARST win chance | 65% | – | −162 | Lost |
USA by 14+
11%
USA by 1–13
25%
ARST by 1–13
33%
ARST by 14+
31%
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened ARST −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.009 #71Offense EPA / play−0.041 #81
+0.214 #136Defense EPA / play allowed+0.140 #120
−3.7% #101Offense success rate+0.9% #58
+7.2% #130Defense success rate allowed+6.9% #128
−0.003 #84Rushing EPA / play+0.070 #52
+0.087 #36Passing EPA / play−0.113 #92
+0.156 #127Rush defense EPA allowed+0.014 #58
+0.221 #124Pass defense EPA allowed+0.300 #133
−0.1 #64Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.0 #90
+10.0 #128Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #83
Situational
−2.6% #77Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.7% #66
+9.5% #135Passing-down success allowed+7.2% #127
−0.27 #78Points per drive−0.14 #72
+1.06 #120Points per drive allowed+0.35 #91
Trenches
+0.03 #84Line yards per rush+0.08 #73
+0.20 #101Line yards per rush allowed+0.58 #137
−4.4% #32Runs stuffed at the line−1.8% #71
−0.7% #82Opponent runs stuffed−6.8% #137
−2.2% #50Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.7% #83
−0.4% #63Havoc created−3.9% #132
Big plays
+0.089 #36Rushing explosiveness+0.042 #61
+0.334 #12Passing explosiveness+0.021 #104
−0.54 #119Open-field yards per rush−0.56 #122
+0.046 #88Pass explosiveness allowed+0.148 #117
Style and schedule
64% #12Run rate53% #97
−12.7 #104Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.7 #75
South Alabama: last 5 games
| W52-35 | Covered | |
| L21-45 | Missed | |
| W41-36 | Missed | |
| L24-28 | Covered | |
| W39-14 | Covered |
Arkansas State: last 5 games
| L20-23 | Covered | |
| W17-14 | Missed | |
| L7-31 | Missed | |
| W52-7 | Covered | |
| L24-42 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSAARST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ARST −3 | 60.5 | USA +136 · ARST −162 |
| BEAVER fair line | ARST −6.1 | 60.1 | USA +182 · ARST −182 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USA | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 35.1 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 28.8 / 27.2 |
| +2.7 | Avg margin | +1.5 |
| +2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 69.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |