College football scores › Week 6 › Georgia at Alabama
BEAVER UGA +2.5, wonBEAVER Over 51.5, lostBEAVER had ALA 55% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UGA–ALA) | 29–32 | 32–35 | – | 20–17 | |
| Spread | ALA −2.2 | ALA −3.3 | ALA −2.5 | UGA by 3 | UGA +2.5 ✓ |
| Total | 60.9 | 67.0 | 51.5 | 37 | Over 51.5 ✗ |
| ALA win chance | 55% | – | −125 | Lost |
UGA by 14+
16%
UGA by 1–13
29%
ALA by 1–13
32%
ALA by 14+
23%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 9.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened UGA −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.245 #2Offense EPA / play+0.245 #3
−0.114 #14Defense EPA / play allowed−0.227 #1
+13.0% #1Offense success rate+9.4% #7
−7.0% #8Defense success rate allowed−9.4% #4
+0.189 #9Rushing EPA / play+0.222 #6
+0.243 #7Passing EPA / play+0.274 #6
−0.316 #1Rush defense EPA allowed−0.304 #2
−0.048 #34Pass defense EPA allowed−0.195 #12
+17.4 #2Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+20.3 #1
−6.0 #19Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−9.2 #8
Situational
+9.0% #6Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.0% #29
−7.7% #4Passing-down success allowed−7.8% #3
+2.87 #1Points per drive+2.25 #4
−0.39 #40Points per drive allowed−1.23 #3
Trenches
+0.75 #2Line yards per rush+0.47 #16
−0.75 #4Line yards per rush allowed−1.11 #1
−7.6% #2Runs stuffed at the line−4.0% #38
+1.5% #50Opponent runs stuffed+9.3% #2
−5.0% #12Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.7% #42
+1.6% #31Havoc created+4.5% #7
Big plays
−0.188 #131Rushing explosiveness+0.099 #34
−0.029 #119Passing explosiveness+0.176 #39
+0.44 #14Open-field yards per rush+0.51 #11
+0.138 #115Pass explosiveness allowed+0.103 #106
Style and schedule
53% #105Run rate57% #53
−10.8 #92Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+5.6 #5
Georgia: last 5 games
| W38-14 | Missed | |
| W41-13 | Covered | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W70-20 | Covered | |
| W63-3 | Covered |
Alabama: last 5 games
| W56-23 | Covered | |
| W49-18 | Covered | |
| W50-36 | Missed | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W48-10 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUGAALA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ALA −2.5 | 51.5 | UGA +105 · ALA −125 |
| BEAVER fair line | ALA −2.2 | 60.9 | UGA +124 · ALA −124 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UGA | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 6-2 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 4-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-1 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 6-1 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 43.0 / 15.9 | Points for / against | 38.2 / 21.2 |
| +27.1 | Avg margin | +17.0 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.8 |
| 48.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.6 |