College football scores › Week 7 › Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe
BEAVER LT −15.5, wonBEAVER Over 55.5, lostBEAVER had LT 85% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LT–ULM) | 36–19 | 43–21 | – | 24–0 | |
| Spread | LT −17.0 | LT −22.0 | LT −15.5 | LT by 24 | LT −15.5 ✓ |
| Total | 56.0 | 64.1 | 55.5 | 24 | Over 55.5 ✗ |
| ULM win chance | 15% | – | +425 | Lost |
LT by 14+
57%
LT by 1–13
28%
ULM by 1–13
12%
ULM by 14+
3%
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened LT −14.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.018 #72Offense EPA / play−0.208 #132
+0.027 #71Defense EPA / play allowed+0.226 #137
−1.6% #84Offense success rate−5.2% #116
−1.5% #40Defense success rate allowed+8.8% #136
+0.009 #78Rushing EPA / play−0.083 #113
−0.014 #59Passing EPA / play−0.241 #122
+0.061 #87Rush defense EPA allowed+0.210 #137
−0.012 #50Pass defense EPA allowed+0.289 #131
+0.3 #62Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.9 #123
+6.0 #111Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+16.4 #138
Situational
+2.0% #38Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.7% #109
+0.6% #76Passing-down success allowed+10.7% #137
+0.28 #50Points per drive−1.25 #123
+0.46 #98Points per drive allowed+1.94 #135
Trenches
−0.24 #119Line yards per rush−0.24 #118
−0.14 #43Line yards per rush allowed+0.48 #131
+2.4% #123Runs stuffed at the line+1.8% #118
+2.7% #34Opponent runs stuffed−3.2% #117
−1.2% #71Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.9% #125
+2.7% #18Havoc created−4.6% #134
Big plays
+0.020 #65Rushing explosiveness−0.104 #117
+0.278 #19Passing explosiveness+0.063 #91
+0.16 #37Open-field yards per rush−0.30 #87
+0.124 #114Pass explosiveness allowed+0.077 #93
Style and schedule
58% #42Run rate56% #61
−9.5 #88Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.2 #95
Louisiana Tech: last 5 games
| W32-31 | Missed | |
| W31-29 | Covered | |
| L19-36 | Covered | |
| L14-45 | Covered | |
| W80-6 | Covered |
UL Monroe: last 5 games
| L35-52 | Missed | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| L35-38 | Missed | |
| L20-26 | Covered | |
| L13-62 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekLTULM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LT −15.5 | 55.5 | LT −575 · ULM +425 |
| BEAVER fair line | LT −17 | 56.0 | LT −589 · ULM +589 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| LT | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 0-3 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 32.3 / 21.0 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 37.3 |
| +11.3 | Avg margin | -17.1 |
| +8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.8 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.7 |