College football scores › Week 6 › Louisiana at Louisiana Tech
BEAVER UL +3, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, wonBEAVER had UL 51% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UL–LT) | 26–25 | 25–29 | – | 31–32 | |
| Spread | UL −0.3 | LT −3.4 | LT −3 | LT by 1 | UL +3 ✓ |
| Total | 51.1 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 63 | Over 48.5 ✓ |
| LT win chance | 49% | – | −155 | Won |
UL by 14+
19%
UL by 1–13
31%
LT by 1–13
31%
LT by 14+
18%
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.071 #95Offense EPA / play−0.053 #83
−0.048 #39Defense EPA / play allowed+0.015 #62
−3.8% #103Offense success rate−3.8% #104
+1.0% #74Defense success rate allowed−1.3% #49
+0.067 #53Rushing EPA / play−0.006 #85
−0.117 #93Passing EPA / play−0.050 #77
−0.174 #7Rush defense EPA allowed+0.049 #84
+0.099 #87Pass defense EPA allowed−0.012 #44
−4.3 #87Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.4 #61
+1.7 #80Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.0 #99
Situational
−4.0% #92Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.2% #85
+0.3% #79Passing-down success allowed−0.8% #59
−0.76 #98Points per drive+0.42 #39
+0.12 #69Points per drive allowed+0.28 #85
Trenches
+0.03 #85Line yards per rush−0.20 #117
−0.00 #68Line yards per rush allowed−0.21 #33
−1.3% #80Runs stuffed at the line+3.1% #126
+3.8% #22Opponent runs stuffed+2.4% #37
−0.4% #96Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #79
+0.7% #43Havoc created+3.5% #10
Big plays
+0.147 #18Rushing explosiveness−0.129 #121
−0.117 #132Passing explosiveness+0.348 #8
−0.19 #77Open-field yards per rush+0.28 #24
−0.097 #31Pass explosiveness allowed+0.004 #69
Style and schedule
64% #10Run rate58% #37
−13.5 #112Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.7 #87
Louisiana: last 5 games
| W23-20 | Missed | |
| W34-7 | Covered | |
| W21-14 | Push | |
| L30-49 | Covered | |
| W38-7 | Covered |
Louisiana Tech: last 4 games
| W31-29 | Covered | |
| L19-36 | Covered | |
| L14-45 | Covered | |
| W80-6 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekULLT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LT −3 | 48.5 | UL +130 · LT −155 |
| BEAVER fair line | UL −0.3 | 51.1 | UL −103 · LT +103 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UL | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 5-2-1 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 30.1 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 32.3 / 21.0 |
| +8.9 | Avg margin | +11.3 |
| +6.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.3 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |