BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Syracuse at Virginia
Syracuse3-4away
25
FinalScott Stadium, 64°, wind 5 mph
Virginia4-4home
28
BEAVER SYR +11.5, wonBEAVER Under 49.5, lostBEAVER had UVA 69% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (SYR–UVA)21–2922–30–25–28
SpreadUVA −7.9UVA −7.9UVA −11.5UVA by 3SYR +11.5 ✓
Total49.252.649.553Under 49.5 ✗
UVA win chance69%–−550Won
SYR by 14+
8%
SYR by 1–13
23%
UVA by 1–13
34%
UVA by 14+
35%

Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UVA −9.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.069 #93Offense EPA / play+0.012 #60
−0.011 #52Defense EPA / play allowed−0.019 #49
+0.2% #69Offense success rate+1.3% #55
+2.3% #87Defense success rate allowed−1.3% #48
+0.046 #64Rushing EPA / play+0.107 #36
−0.087 #87Passing EPA / play+0.023 #53
+0.075 #94Rush defense EPA allowed+0.029 #68
−0.158 #14Pass defense EPA allowed+0.025 #65
+0.2 #62Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.0 #63
+1.7 #81Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.0 #25
Situational
+2.1% #38Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.2% #118
−4.1% #26Passing-down success allowed−8.5% #1
+0.19 #58Points per drive+0.37 #43
+0.22 #78Points per drive allowed−0.54 #29
Trenches
+0.08 #72Line yards per rush+0.49 #13
−0.17 #41Line yards per rush allowed+0.27 #115
−1.1% #85Runs stuffed at the line−7.1% #6
+3.6% #25Opponent runs stuffed−2.2% #103
−1.8% #61Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.1% #34
+0.1% #58Havoc created+0.2% #55
Big plays
−0.095 #112Rushing explosiveness−0.028 #88
+0.176 #38Passing explosiveness−0.006 #113
−0.21 #79Open-field yards per rush−0.53 #118
−0.137 #18Pass explosiveness allowed−0.050 #47
Style and schedule
54% #94Run rate58% #42
−11.8 #100Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.3 #72

Syracuse: last 4 games

W42-41
atUConn
Missed
L13-27
atPittsburgh
Missed
L18-21
vsCalifornia
Missed
W66-3
vsNew Hampshire
Covered

Virginia: last 5 games

L7-38
atFlorida State
Missed
W42-3
vsDelaware
Covered
L27-38
vsWest Virginia
Missed
W59-3
vsNorfolk State
Covered
W34-8
vsNC State
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.12−0.04+0.04+0.13+0.21Entering week123456Syracuse · 1: −0.08Syracuse · 2: +0.02Syracuse · 3: −0.10Syracuse · 4: −0.09Syracuse · 5: −0.09Syracuse · 6: −0.06Virginia · 1: +0.03Virginia · 2: +0.14Virginia · 3: +0.18Virginia · 4: +0.09Virginia · 5: +0.10Virginia · 6: +0.03
● Syracuse● Virginia