College football scores › Week 6 › Tulsa at Navy
BEAVER NAVY −1.5, wonBEAVER Over 47.5, wonBEAVER had NAVY 54% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TLSA–NAVY) | 23–25 | 26–22 | – | 26–34 | |
| Spread | NAVY −1.7 | TLSA −3.5 | NAVY −1.5 | NAVY by 8 | NAVY −1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.4 | 47.5 | 60 | Over 47.5 ✓ |
| NAVY win chance | 54% | – | −155 | Won |
TLSA by 14+
16%
TLSA by 1–13
30%
NAVY by 1–13
32%
NAVY by 14+
22%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Navy (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened NAVY −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.073 #96Offense EPA / play−0.076 #97
−0.027 #46Defense EPA / play allowed+0.079 #90
−5.2% #118Offense success rate−1.0% #78
−1.7% #44Defense success rate allowed−0.4% #61
+0.087 #45Rushing EPA / play+0.047 #63
−0.204 #119Passing EPA / play−0.352 #137
−0.078 #27Rush defense EPA allowed−0.015 #48
+0.061 #76Pass defense EPA allowed+0.172 #116
−5.4 #92Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.8 #119
+0.8 #71Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.5 #88
Situational
−11.8% #138Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.5% #134
+3.5% #100Passing-down success allowed+1.9% #89
−0.98 #109Points per drive−1.00 #111
−0.10 #55Points per drive allowed+0.19 #73
Trenches
+0.26 #46Line yards per rush+0.33 #29
−0.11 #48Line yards per rush allowed−0.18 #37
−5.7% #20Runs stuffed at the line−4.9% #27
+0.6% #60Opponent runs stuffed+3.0% #28
−0.9% #78Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.5% #92
−2.1% #103Havoc created−2.3% #105
Big plays
+0.158 #14Rushing explosiveness+0.045 #57
−0.074 #126Passing explosiveness+0.244 #27
−0.06 #59Open-field yards per rush+0.07 #43
+0.017 #76Pass explosiveness allowed+0.166 #121
Style and schedule
53% #96Run rate77% #3
−9.9 #88Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−18.6 #133
Tulsa: last 5 games
| L44-45 | Covered | |
| L6-34 | Missed | |
| W42-0 | Covered | |
| W23-17 | Missed | |
| W24-10 | Covered |
Navy: last 4 games
| L9-14 | Missed | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| L30-38 | Missed | |
| W42-15 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTLSANAVY
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NAVY −1.5 | 47.5 | TLSA +130 · NAVY −155 |
| BEAVER fair line | NAVY −1.7 | 48.5 | TLSA +119 · NAVY −119 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TLSA | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-2 | Away | 0-4 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 29.8 / 24.4 | Points for / against | 29.7 / 29.1 |
| +5.4 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| +1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.4 |
| 63.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |