College football scores › Week 6 › Hawai'i at Arizona State
BEAVER ASU −21, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, lostBEAVER had ASU 92% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (HAW–ASU) | 16–39 | 16–36 | – | 12–30 | |
| Spread | ASU −22.4 | ASU −19.5 | ASU −21 | ASU by 18 | ASU −21 ✗ |
| Total | 55.2 | 52.2 | 50.5 | 42 | Over 50.5 ✗ |
| ASU win chance | 92% | – | −1650 | Won |
HAW by 14+
1%
HAW by 1–13
7%
ASU by 1–13
22%
ASU by 14+
70%
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Arizona State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.7 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened ASU −20.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.139 #118Offense EPA / play−0.058 #88
+0.189 #132Defense EPA / play allowed+0.025 #66
−5.6% #121Offense success rate+1.4% #53
+7.5% #133Defense success rate allowed−1.9% #41
−0.141 #129Rushing EPA / play−0.016 #91
−0.143 #105Passing EPA / play−0.075 #83
+0.195 #135Rush defense EPA allowed+0.031 #70
+0.110 #90Pass defense EPA allowed+0.047 #70
−11.3 #131Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.9 #44
+6.3 #110Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.1 #92
Situational
−6.9% #112Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.8% #20
+2.9% #93Passing-down success allowed−2.6% #41
−1.45 #131Points per drive+0.35 #46
+0.71 #107Points per drive allowed+0.23 #79
Trenches
−0.02 #93Line yards per rush+0.18 #57
+0.38 #124Line yards per rush allowed−0.03 #61
−0.1% #96Runs stuffed at the line−2.8% #58
−5.6% #134Opponent runs stuffed−0.8% #83
+1.0% #119Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.2% #71
−3.2% #123Havoc created−0.6% #68
Big plays
−0.090 #110Rushing explosiveness−0.198 #133
−0.002 #111Passing explosiveness+0.099 #75
−0.17 #73Open-field yards per rush+0.04 #45
−0.102 #28Pass explosiveness allowed+0.087 #100
Style and schedule
41% #138Run rate55% #78
−13.2 #107Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.2 #39
Hawai'i: last 5 games
| L16-20 | Missed | |
| L10-27 | Missed | |
| W29-19 | Covered | |
| L6-21 | Missed | |
| L27-37 | Missed |
Arizona State: last 4 games
| L19-55 | Missed | |
| W24-17 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed | |
| W70-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekHAWASU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ASU −21 | 50.5 | HAW +950 · ASU −1650 |
| BEAVER fair line | ASU −22.4 | 55.2 | HAW +1120 · ASU −1120 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| HAW | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-4 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 20.8 / 24.5 | Points for / against | 30.9 / 29.9 |
| -3.8 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.6 |
| 70.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.4 |