College football scores › Week 6 › UConn at Temple
BEAVER TEM −3.5, lostBEAVER Over 54.5, lostBEAVER had TEM 59% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CONN–TEM) | 26–30 | 24–32 | – | 34–20 | |
| Spread | TEM −3.9 | TEM −7.6 | TEM −3.5 | CONN by 14 | TEM −3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 56.6 | 56.1 | 54.5 | 54 | Over 54.5 ✗ |
| TEM win chance | 59% | – | −180 | Lost |
CONN by 14+
13%
CONN by 1–13
27%
TEM by 1–13
33%
TEM by 14+
26%
Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for Temple (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.011 #72Offense EPA / play+0.025 #54
+0.089 #94Defense EPA / play allowed+0.127 #112
−3.2% #95Offense success rate−2.2% #89
+4.6% #112Defense success rate allowed+4.7% #113
+0.018 #79Rushing EPA / play+0.097 #42
+0.015 #58Passing EPA / play−0.052 #78
+0.033 #71Rush defense EPA allowed+0.081 #97
+0.151 #103Pass defense EPA allowed+0.146 #101
−1.3 #70Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.7 #85
+6.0 #107Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.8 #84
Situational
−1.5% #64Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.1% #54
+7.3% #129Passing-down success allowed+4.3% #109
−0.27 #79Points per drive−0.39 #85
+0.48 #99Points per drive allowed+0.31 #89
Trenches
+0.04 #83Line yards per rush+0.28 #43
+0.01 #71Line yards per rush allowed+0.00 #69
−1.9% #70Runs stuffed at the line−3.4% #53
+0.2% #69Opponent runs stuffed−4.7% #128
−0.5% #95Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.3% #18
−1.1% #79Havoc created−4.4% #134
Big plays
+0.035 #63Rushing explosiveness+0.005 #74
+0.388 #5Passing explosiveness+0.390 #4
−0.02 #55Open-field yards per rush+0.15 #32
+0.001 #67Pass explosiveness allowed−0.032 #57
Style and schedule
55% #71Run rate66% #7
−15.8 #119Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.8 #52
UConn: last 5 games
| L41-42 | Covered | |
| L21-24 | Missed | |
| W48-20 | Covered | |
| L14-38 | Missed | |
| W56-7 | Covered |
Temple: last 5 games
| W17-13 | Covered | |
| L17-21 | Push | |
| L48-49 | Covered | |
| L9-27 | Covered | |
| W38-14 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCONNTEM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TEM −3.5 | 54.5 | CONN +150 · TEM −180 |
| BEAVER fair line | TEM −3.9 | 56.6 | CONN +147 · TEM −147 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CONN | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-2 | Home | 1-4 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 4-2-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 35.6 / 23.9 | Points for / against | 25.7 / 28.0 |
| +11.7 | Avg margin | -2.3 |
| +9.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 60.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.3 |