College football scores › Week 7 › Tulsa at Rice
BEAVER RICE +4.5, lostBEAVER Over 46.5, wonBEAVER had TLSA 53% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TLSA–RICE) | 24–23 | 27–23 | – | 38–17 | |
| Spread | TLSA −1.3 | TLSA −4.8 | TLSA −4.5 | TLSA by 21 | RICE +4.5 ✗ |
| Total | 46.6 | 49.9 | 46.5 | 55 | Over 46.5 ✓ |
| RICE win chance | 47% | – | +164 | Lost |
TLSA by 14+
21%
TLSA by 1–13
32%
RICE by 1–13
30%
RICE by 14+
16%
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Rice (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened TLSA −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.072 #94Offense EPA / play−0.146 #122
−0.001 #54Defense EPA / play allowed+0.043 #75
−6.1% #123Offense success rate−4.7% #112
−0.3% #60Defense success rate allowed+0.1% #64
+0.086 #45Rushing EPA / play−0.028 #95
−0.219 #119Passing EPA / play−0.378 #136
−0.045 #37Rush defense EPA allowed+0.145 #126
+0.215 #121Pass defense EPA allowed−0.098 #27
−4.9 #92Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.6 #119
+2.4 #83Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.9 #90
Situational
−11.5% #135Passing-down success (3rd & long)−10.3% #130
+7.9% #127Passing-down success allowed+2.7% #95
−0.88 #105Points per drive−1.09 #112
+0.08 #66Points per drive allowed+0.59 #102
Trenches
+0.21 #52Line yards per rush−0.14 #108
−0.03 #61Line yards per rush allowed+0.23 #104
−6.5% #10Runs stuffed at the line+1.0% #105
−0.4% #78Opponent runs stuffed−2.0% #94
−0.9% #82Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.9% #119
−2.8% #117Havoc created−0.1% #57
Big plays
+0.161 #13Rushing explosiveness+0.068 #43
−0.053 #124Passing explosiveness+0.314 #12
−0.09 #62Open-field yards per rush+0.22 #29
+0.078 #94Pass explosiveness allowed+0.062 #87
Style and schedule
53% #100Run rate77% #4
−10.2 #94Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.0 #39
Tulsa: last 5 games
| L26-34 | Missed | |
| L44-45 | Covered | |
| L6-34 | Missed | |
| W42-0 | Covered | |
| W23-17 | Missed |
Rice: last 5 games
| L12-28 | Missed | |
| L14-16 | Covered | |
| L24-38 | Missed | |
| L21-28 | Covered | |
| L0-52 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTLSARICE
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TLSA −4.5 | 46.5 | TLSA −198 · RICE +164 |
| BEAVER fair line | TLSA −1.3 | 46.6 | TLSA −114 · RICE +114 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TLSA | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 1-7 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 0-4 |
| 2-2 | Home | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | Away | 0-4 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 29.8 / 24.4 | Points for / against | 21.0 / 31.8 |
| +5.4 | Avg margin | -10.8 |
| +1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 63.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |