College football scores › Week 8 › UL Monroe at Troy
BEAVER TROY −11.5, lostBEAVER Over 49.5, lostBEAVER had TROY 82% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ULM–TROY) | 20–35 | 17–37 | – | 21–14 | |
| Spread | TROY −14.7 | TROY −19.8 | TROY −11.5 | ULM by 7 | TROY −11.5 ✗ |
| Total | 54.4 | 54.4 | 49.5 | 35 | Over 49.5 ✗ |
| TROY win chance | 82% | – | −625 | Lost |
ULM by 14+
4%
ULM by 1–13
14%
TROY by 1–13
30%
TROY by 14+
52%
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Troy (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened TROY −17.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.240 #136Offense EPA / play−0.072 #95
+0.202 #133Defense EPA / play allowed+0.107 #106
−5.5% #119Offense success rate−2.0% #85
+7.6% #133Defense success rate allowed+4.5% #110
−0.122 #129Rushing EPA / play+0.032 #69
−0.261 #129Passing EPA / play−0.141 #103
+0.182 #129Rush defense EPA allowed+0.104 #106
+0.265 #128Pass defense EPA allowed+0.059 #77
−12.9 #134Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.8 #98
+14.4 #136Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.8 #115
Situational
−8.1% #120Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.8% #107
+8.7% #133Passing-down success allowed+1.4% #86
−1.53 #134Points per drive−0.98 #107
+1.67 #133Points per drive allowed+0.59 #102
Trenches
−0.35 #131Line yards per rush−0.05 #92
+0.46 #129Line yards per rush allowed+0.07 #76
+3.0% #129Runs stuffed at the line−0.3% #88
−4.1% #121Opponent runs stuffed+0.2% #64
+1.8% #127Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.7% #115
−4.2% #133Havoc created−3.1% #123
Big plays
−0.154 #127Rushing explosiveness+0.047 #55
+0.074 #89Passing explosiveness+0.077 #86
−0.43 #105Open-field yards per rush+0.08 #44
+0.034 #81Pass explosiveness allowed+0.049 #88
Style and schedule
55% #76Run rate58% #41
−9.5 #93Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.6 #110
UL Monroe: last 5 games
| L0-24 | Missed | |
| L35-52 | Missed | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| L35-38 | Missed | |
| L20-26 | Covered |
Troy: last 5 games
| L6-33 | Missed | |
| W55-34 | Covered | |
| L10-21 | Missed | |
| L17-27 | Covered | |
| W34-17 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekULMTROY
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TROY −11.5 | 49.5 | ULM +455 · TROY −625 |
| BEAVER fair line | TROY −14.7 | 54.4 | ULM +459 · TROY −459 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ULM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 0-3 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 20.1 / 37.3 | Points for / against | 22.9 / 24.9 |
| -17.1 | Avg margin | -2.0 |
| -5.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 56.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.7 |