BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Oklahoma at Mississippi State
Oklahoma4-3away
23
FinalDavis Wade Stadium, 75°, wind 7 mph
Mississippi State4-3home
15
BEAVER OU −2.5, wonBEAVER Over 47.5, lostBEAVER had OU 56% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (OU–MSST)26–2422–28–23–15
SpreadOU −2.6MSST −6.1OU −2.5OU by 8OU −2.5 ✓
Total49.950.247.538Over 47.5 ✗
MSST win chance44%–+102Lost
OU by 14+
23%
OU by 1–13
33%
MSST by 1–13
29%
MSST by 14+
15%

Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Oklahoma (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened OU −1.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.048 #87Offense EPA / play+0.123 #23
−0.193 #5Defense EPA / play allowed+0.001 #52
+0.1% #67Offense success rate+7.9% #9
−9.5% #3Defense success rate allowed+2.1% #85
−0.103 #125Rushing EPA / play+0.152 #22
+0.075 #40Passing EPA / play+0.137 #22
−0.149 #14Rush defense EPA allowed−0.053 #34
−0.159 #15Pass defense EPA allowed+0.010 #54
−0.5 #66Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.3 #18
−10.3 #6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #61
Situational
−0.5% #58Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.4% #21
−6.6% #9Passing-down success allowed−0.2% #63
+0.44 #43Points per drive+1.05 #17
−1.32 #4Points per drive allowed−0.05 #55
Trenches
+0.05 #79Line yards per rush+0.41 #23
−0.41 #16Line yards per rush allowed+0.06 #73
+0.1% #95Runs stuffed at the line−2.3% #65
+3.9% #24Opponent runs stuffed−1.7% #94
−0.8% #85Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.7% #38
+2.9% #17Havoc created+0.6% #41
Big plays
−0.285 #137Rushing explosiveness+0.001 #77
+0.073 #90Passing explosiveness+0.086 #82
−0.03 #53Open-field yards per rush+0.21 #27
−0.063 #36Pass explosiveness allowed−0.079 #35
Style and schedule
54% #89Run rate56% #54
+6.2 #6Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.3 #5

Oklahoma: last 5 games

L13-21
vsKentucky
Missed
W27-24
vsTexas
Covered
L13-41
atGeorgia
Missed
W14-6
vsNew Mexico
Missed
L10-17
atMichigan
Missed

Mississippi State: last 5 games

L0-31
atLSU
Missed
L23-56
vsAlabama
Missed
W31-24
vsMissouri
Covered
W41-34
atSouth Carolina
Covered
W38-13
atMinnesota
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.14+0.22+0.30Entering week12345678Oklahoma · 1: +0.17Oklahoma · 2: +0.25Oklahoma · 3: +0.20Oklahoma · 4: +0.16Oklahoma · 5: +0.16Oklahoma · 6: +0.15Oklahoma · 7: +0.18Oklahoma · 8: +0.15Mississippi State · 1: +0.01Mississippi State · 2: +0.13Mississippi State · 3: +0.28Mississippi State · 4: +0.25Mississippi State · 5: +0.23Mississippi State · 6: +0.18Mississippi State · 7: +0.18Mississippi State · 8: +0.12
● Oklahoma● Mississippi State