BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › TCU at Baylor
TCU3-4away
17
FinalMcLane Stadium, 61°, wind 8 mph
Baylor4-3home
6
BEAVER BAY −5.5, lostBEAVER Under 48.5, wonBEAVER had BAY 66% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (TCU–BAY)20–2616–25–17–6
SpreadBAY −6.6BAY −9.3BAY −5.5TCU by 11BAY −5.5 ✗
Total46.041.148.523Under 48.5 ✓
BAY win chance66%–−185Lost
TCU by 14+
9%
TCU by 1–13
24%
BAY by 1–13
34%
BAY by 14+
32%

Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Baylor (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened BAY −6.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.020 #74Offense EPA / play+0.047 #42
−0.113 #17Defense EPA / play allowed−0.048 #36
−1.3% #79Offense success rate+0.4% #69
−3.8% #25Defense success rate allowed−2.7% #34
−0.088 #117Rushing EPA / play+0.081 #48
+0.045 #45Passing EPA / play+0.041 #47
−0.164 #11Rush defense EPA allowed−0.155 #12
−0.077 #30Pass defense EPA allowed+0.019 #62
−2.8 #79Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.5 #39
−7.7 #12Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.4 #36
Situational
−8.3% #123Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.7% #31
−2.6% #39Passing-down success allowed−1.1% #58
−0.45 #90Points per drive+0.14 #59
−0.71 #23Points per drive allowed−0.42 #37
Trenches
−0.27 #123Line yards per rush+0.14 #68
−0.12 #46Line yards per rush allowed−0.07 #54
+1.2% #107Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #45
−0.1% #73Opponent runs stuffed+1.4% #51
−0.8% #84Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.8% #61
+0.7% #42Havoc created+2.3% #20
Big plays
−0.125 #122Rushing explosiveness+0.139 #20
+0.247 #25Passing explosiveness+0.213 #34
−0.40 #105Open-field yards per rush+0.17 #36
−0.174 #13Pass explosiveness allowed−0.156 #19
Style and schedule
51% #114Run rate49% #126
−5.9 #60Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.3 #87

TCU: last 5 games

L10-17
vsBYU
Missed
L13-21
atUCF
Missed
W31-7
vsArkansas State
Covered
W63-7
vsGrambling
Covered
L10-15
vsNorth Carolina
Missed

Baylor: last 5 games

W55-19
atArizona State
Covered
W23-13
vsColorado
Covered
W36-19
vsLouisiana Tech
Missed
W44-3
vsPrairie View A&M
Covered
L16-17
vsAuburn
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.05+0.08+0.11Entering week1234567TCU · 1: +0.09TCU · 2: +0.03TCU · 3: +0.04TCU · 4: +0.04TCU · 5: +0.04TCU · 6: +0.08TCU · 7: +0.09Baylor · 1: +0.01Baylor · 2: +0.04Baylor · 3: +0.09Baylor · 4: +0.04Baylor · 5: +0.05Baylor · 6: +0.10Baylor · 7: +0.09
● TCU● Baylor