College football scores › Week 8 › San José State at Nevada
BEAVER Over 46.5, lostBEAVER had NEV 66% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SJSU–NEV) | 22–28 | 23–25 | – | 13–28 | |
| Spread | NEV −6.5 | NEV −1.6 | NEV −6.5 | NEV by 15 | |
| Total | 50.0 | 48.4 | 46.5 | 41 | Over 46.5 ✗ |
| NEV win chance | 66% | – | −218 | Won |
SJSU by 14+
10%
SJSU by 1–13
24%
NEV by 1–13
34%
NEV by 14+
32%
Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NEV −5.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.119 #108Offense EPA / play−0.128 #112
+0.089 #94Defense EPA / play allowed+0.112 #108
−6.3% #129Offense success rate−5.9% #124
+4.1% #106Defense success rate allowed+1.2% #79
−0.099 #122Rushing EPA / play+0.031 #70
−0.116 #96Passing EPA / play−0.265 #130
+0.155 #122Rush defense EPA allowed+0.088 #99
+0.028 #63Pass defense EPA allowed+0.265 #129
−9.8 #119Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.0 #106
+4.0 #93Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.6 #98
Situational
−11.8% #138Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.7% #86
+1.0% #77Passing-down success allowed+1.1% #79
−1.42 #128Points per drive−1.22 #123
+0.37 #86Points per drive allowed+0.36 #85
Trenches
−0.09 #106Line yards per rush−0.05 #93
+0.36 #120Line yards per rush allowed+0.27 #113
+0.8% #104Runs stuffed at the line+0.8% #103
−5.9% #135Opponent runs stuffed−3.4% #117
−0.1% #100Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.5% #112
−1.3% #88Havoc created−3.0% #117
Big plays
−0.056 #97Rushing explosiveness+0.110 #25
+0.030 #104Passing explosiveness+0.236 #26
−0.65 #128Open-field yards per rush+0.16 #36
−0.017 #52Pass explosiveness allowed+0.177 #130
Style and schedule
51% #116Run rate59% #35
−14.6 #121Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.4 #114
San José State: last 5 games
| W24-11 | Covered | |
| L13-16 | Missed | |
| W20-16 | Covered | |
| L10-26 | Missed | |
| W30-20 | Missed |
Nevada: last 5 games
| L17-31 | Covered | |
| W30-13 | Covered | |
| L33-36 | Covered | |
| L20-27 | Missed | |
| L7-20 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSJSUNEV
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NEV −6.5 | 46.5 | SJSU +180 · NEV −218 |
| BEAVER fair line | NEV −6.5 | 50.0 | SJSU +193 · NEV −193 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SJSU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 1-7 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 20.4 / 22.5 | Points for / against | 26.3 / 22.0 |
| -2.1 | Avg margin | +4.3 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 63.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.1 |