College football scores › Week 7 › Kent State at South Florida
BEAVER KENT +20.5, lostBEAVER Over 45.5, lostBEAVER had USF 90% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KENT–USF) | 15–35 | 9–31 | – | 2–29 | |
| Spread | USF −20.2 | USF −21.6 | USF −20.5 | USF by 27 | KENT +20.5 ✗ |
| Total | 49.9 | 40.2 | 45.5 | 31 | Over 45.5 ✗ |
| USF win chance | 90% | – | −1450 | Won |
KENT by 14+
2%
KENT by 1–13
9%
USF by 1–13
25%
USF by 14+
65%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Kent State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened USF −18.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.173 #125Offense EPA / play−0.030 #84
+0.101 #103Defense EPA / play allowed+0.059 #79
−9.5% #136Offense success rate+1.0% #61
+5.7% #120Defense success rate allowed+4.3% #107
−0.151 #131Rushing EPA / play+0.046 #65
−0.119 #98Passing EPA / play−0.131 #103
+0.084 #101Rush defense EPA allowed−0.048 #35
+0.122 #93Pass defense EPA allowed+0.197 #115
−12.7 #132Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.8 #86
+8.9 #125Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.1 #62
Situational
−11.5% #136Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.1% #48
+4.1% #107Passing-down success allowed+4.7% #114
−1.50 #134Points per drive−0.47 #91
+2.06 #137Points per drive allowed+0.21 #75
Trenches
−0.28 #125Line yards per rush−0.08 #100
+0.32 #116Line yards per rush allowed+0.03 #73
+0.7% #104Runs stuffed at the line+1.4% #109
−2.6% #110Opponent runs stuffed+2.3% #36
+1.4% #122Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.8% #60
−1.4% #91Havoc created−1.0% #79
Big plays
−0.018 #86Rushing explosiveness−0.006 #78
+0.289 #15Passing explosiveness−0.132 #134
−0.71 #132Open-field yards per rush−0.34 #97
−0.050 #45Pass explosiveness allowed−0.073 #35
Style and schedule
57% #54Run rate57% #46
−4.7 #51Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.9 #117
Kent State: last 5 games
| L7-38 | Missed | |
| L10-13 | Covered | |
| W26-13 | Covered | |
| L3-59 | Missed | |
| W36-15 | Covered |
South Florida: last 5 games
| L24-31 | Missed | |
| L13-17 | Missed | |
| W14-6 | Missed | |
| W59-17 | Covered | |
| W28-24 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKENTUSF
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | USF −20.5 | 45.5 | KENT +850 · USF −1450 |
| BEAVER fair line | USF −20.2 | 49.9 | KENT +892 · USF −892 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KENT | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 14.9 / 30.5 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 15.1 |
| -15.6 | Avg margin | +11.4 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.0 |
| 56.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.1 |