BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Fresno State at San Diego State
Fresno State4-3away
23
FinalSnapdragon Stadium, 76°, wind 5 mph
San Diego State3-5home
26
BEAVER SDSU +7.5, wonBEAVER Over 45.5, wonBEAVER had FRES 66% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (FRES–SDSU)27–2133–19–23–26
SpreadFRES −6.5FRES −13.4FRES −7.5SDSU by 3SDSU +7.5 ✓
Total48.251.845.549Over 45.5 ✓
SDSU win chance34%–+220Won
FRES by 14+
32%
FRES by 1–13
34%
SDSU by 1–13
24%
SDSU by 14+
10%

Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for San Diego State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened FRES −8.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.024 #77Offense EPA / play−0.184 #127
−0.010 #47Defense EPA / play allowed+0.026 #70
−2.5% #93Offense success rate−7.9% #132
+1.8% #83Defense success rate allowed+4.0% #105
−0.114 #122Rushing EPA / play−0.043 #102
+0.149 #24Passing EPA / play−0.326 #133
+0.007 #61Rush defense EPA allowed−0.005 #50
+0.014 #60Pass defense EPA allowed+0.081 #80
−2.0 #77Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.0 #104
−1.5 #50Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.4 #104
Situational
+1.5% #41Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.6% #124
+1.5% #86Passing-down success allowed+0.1% #71
−0.18 #77Points per drive−0.73 #101
+0.28 #78Points per drive allowed+0.68 #106
Trenches
−0.31 #126Line yards per rush+0.07 #77
+0.14 #94Line yards per rush allowed+0.37 #121
+5.8% #136Runs stuffed at the line−0.0% #98
−2.3% #103Opponent runs stuffed−6.1% #136
−2.7% #40Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #80
−0.6% #69Havoc created−2.4% #108
Big plays
−0.083 #110Rushing explosiveness+0.100 #31
+0.091 #75Passing explosiveness+0.179 #44
−0.12 #63Open-field yards per rush−0.40 #104
−0.053 #42Pass explosiveness allowed−0.009 #58
Style and schedule
54% #93Run rate61% #20
−7.9 #77Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.7 #45

Fresno State: last 5 games

L31-38
vsBoise State
Covered
W26-6
atWashington State
Covered
W38-24
vsRice
Covered
W26-10
atSan José State
Covered
W49-3
vsSacramento State
Covered

San Diego State: last 5 games

L14-66
atOregon State
Missed
W31-29
vsTexas State
Covered
L16-41
atToledo
Missed
L13-26
vsJames Madison
Missed
L10-28
atUCLA
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.23−0.17−0.11−0.04+0.02Entering week1234567Fresno State · 1: −0.08Fresno State · 2: −0.13Fresno State · 3: −0.10Fresno State · 4: −0.06Fresno State · 5: −0.10Fresno State · 6: −0.01Fresno State · 7: −0.01San Diego State · 1: −0.05San Diego State · 2: −0.14San Diego State · 3: −0.14San Diego State · 4: −0.20San Diego State · 5: −0.20San Diego State · 6: −0.19San Diego State · 7: −0.21
● Fresno State● San Diego State