College football scores › Week 8 › Baylor at Kansas
BEAVER KU +1.5, wonBEAVER Over 53.5, lostBEAVER had KU 51% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BAY–KU) | 27–27 | 27–24 | – | 24–25 | |
| Spread | KU −0.5 | BAY −2.5 | BAY −1.5 | KU by 1 | KU +1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 54.4 | 51.4 | 53.5 | 49 | Over 53.5 ✗ |
| KU win chance | 51% | – | −118 | Won |
BAY by 14+
18%
BAY by 1–13
30%
KU by 1–13
31%
KU by 14+
20%
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Kansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.023 #54Offense EPA / play+0.023 #53
−0.063 #30Defense EPA / play allowed−0.030 #41
−1.8% #82Offense success rate+1.6% #54
−3.0% #30Defense success rate allowed−3.3% #28
+0.024 #72Rushing EPA / play+0.050 #59
+0.017 #51Passing EPA / play−0.043 #76
−0.154 #13Rush defense EPA allowed−0.040 #40
−0.020 #48Pass defense EPA allowed+0.059 #78
+1.7 #53Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.2 #49
−4.0 #33Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.0 #67
Situational
+0.1% #51Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.4% #75
−0.9% #53Passing-down success allowed−4.7% #20
−0.01 #69Points per drive+0.54 #36
−0.46 #34Points per drive allowed−0.19 #48
Trenches
+0.06 #75Line yards per rush+0.23 #45
−0.17 #42Line yards per rush allowed−0.42 #15
−3.8% #37Runs stuffed at the line−4.0% #33
+3.0% #36Opponent runs stuffed+6.6% #8
−2.0% #55Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.1% #99
+2.7% #22Havoc created+0.8% #38
Big plays
+0.091 #35Rushing explosiveness+0.042 #57
+0.285 #11Passing explosiveness+0.266 #16
+0.01 #50Open-field yards per rush−0.44 #108
−0.150 #14Pass explosiveness allowed+0.045 #87
Style and schedule
48% #127Run rate57% #49
−5.8 #63Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.9 #65
Baylor: last 5 games
| L6-17 | Missed | |
| W55-19 | Covered | |
| W23-13 | Covered | |
| W36-19 | Missed | |
| W44-3 | Covered |
Kansas: last 5 games
| L24-35 | Missed | |
| L24-41 | Missed | |
| W55-0 | Covered | |
| L17-24 | Missed | |
| L21-38 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBAYKU
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BAY −1.5 | 53.5 | BAY −102 · KU −118 |
| BEAVER fair line | KU −0.5 | 54.4 | BAY +106 · KU −106 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BAY | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 29.1 / 16.1 | Points for / against | 31.0 / 24.0 |
| +13.0 | Avg margin | +7.0 |
| +4.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.4 |
| 71.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |