College football scores › Week 6 › Southern Miss at Troy
BEAVER USM +9.5, lostBEAVER Under 51.5, lostBEAVER had TROY 56% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USM–TROY) | 22–25 | 16–32 | – | 34–55 | |
| Spread | TROY −2.5 | TROY −15.6 | TROY −9.5 | TROY by 21 | USM +9.5 ✗ |
| Total | 46.8 | 48.0 | 51.5 | 89 | Under 51.5 ✗ |
| TROY win chance | 56% | – | −410 | Won |
USM by 14+
15%
USM by 1–13
29%
TROY by 1–13
33%
TROY by 14+
23%
Spread: 7.0 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 4.7 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened TROY −8.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.113 #112Offense EPA / play−0.114 #113
+0.078 #88Defense EPA / play allowed+0.058 #79
−3.3% #96Offense success rate−4.9% #114
+2.2% #85Defense success rate allowed+1.0% #73
+0.015 #80Rushing EPA / play−0.036 #102
−0.200 #117Passing EPA / play−0.138 #100
+0.135 #119Rush defense EPA allowed+0.024 #65
+0.097 #86Pass defense EPA allowed+0.006 #57
−7.1 #102Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.2 #111
+6.9 #115Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.8 #85
Situational
−7.3% #113Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.3% #103
+4.9% #112Passing-down success allowed−1.6% #50
−0.47 #90Points per drive−1.28 #125
+0.93 #113Points per drive allowed+0.21 #77
Trenches
+0.25 #48Line yards per rush−0.16 #110
+0.24 #111Line yards per rush allowed−0.14 #46
−5.4% #22Runs stuffed at the line+2.4% #123
−1.9% #99Opponent runs stuffed+2.6% #35
+0.5% #114Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.4% #122
−3.4% #124Havoc created−1.5% #88
Big plays
−0.159 #125Rushing explosiveness+0.011 #72
+0.077 #83Passing explosiveness+0.235 #28
−0.76 #134Open-field yards per rush−0.22 #82
+0.084 #97Pass explosiveness allowed+0.010 #71
Style and schedule
52% #113Run rate55% #74
−12.6 #103Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.8 #101
Southern Miss: last 4 games
| L21-24 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed | |
| L8-43 | Missed | |
| W49-3 | Covered |
Troy: last 4 games
| L10-21 | Missed | |
| L17-27 | Covered | |
| W34-17 | Missed | |
| W24-21 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSMTROY
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TROY −9.5 | 51.5 | USM +320 · TROY −410 |
| BEAVER fair line | TROY −2.5 | 46.8 | USM +128 · TROY −128 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 25.7 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 22.9 / 24.9 |
| -6.7 | Avg margin | -2.0 |
| +1.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.7 |