BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Boise State at Washington State
Boise StateNo. 206-1away
31
FinalGesa Field, 52°, wind 6 mph
Washington State1-7home
10
BEAVER WSU +14.5, lostBEAVER Over 53.5, lostBEAVER had BOIS 78% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (BOIS–WSU)33–2137–13–31–10
SpreadBOIS −12.6BOIS −24.0BOIS −14.5BOIS by 21WSU +14.5 ✗
Total54.350.853.541Over 53.5 ✗
WSU win chance22%–+455Lost
BOIS by 14+
47%
BOIS by 1–13
32%
WSU by 1–13
17%
WSU by 14+
5%

Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for Washington State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened BOIS −14.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.167 #13Offense EPA / play−0.132 #113
+0.019 #67Defense EPA / play allowed+0.033 #73
+5.1% #20Offense success rate−6.0% #127
−2.4% #36Defense success rate allowed+0.5% #71
+0.175 #16Rushing EPA / play−0.050 #104
+0.167 #18Passing EPA / play−0.198 #121
+0.097 #104Rush defense EPA allowed+0.087 #98
−0.048 #35Pass defense EPA allowed−0.035 #42
+6.8 #21Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−6.7 #104
−2.0 #46Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.7 #81
Situational
+6.7% #12Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.0% #134
+0.5% #74Passing-down success allowed−3.4% #30
+0.69 #28Points per drive−0.97 #106
−0.24 #47Points per drive allowed−0.04 #56
Trenches
+0.47 #15Line yards per rush−0.01 #88
−0.11 #53Line yards per rush allowed+0.07 #77
−6.3% #13Runs stuffed at the line+1.8% #119
+4.9% #17Opponent runs stuffed+0.1% #67
−6.4% #7Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.5% #122
+1.2% #33Havoc created−2.9% #115
Big plays
+0.049 #53Rushing explosiveness+0.150 #12
+0.186 #38Passing explosiveness−0.151 #137
+0.04 #49Open-field yards per rush−0.19 #80
+0.263 #136Pass explosiveness allowed+0.145 #124
Style and schedule
64% #13Run rate52% #109
−1.6 #35Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.4 #56

Boise State: last 5 games

W38-31
atFresno State
Missed
W37-18
vsUtah State
Missed
W32-7
atWestern Michigan
Covered
W38-24
vsSouth Dakota
Missed
W38-20
vsMemphis
Covered

Washington State: last 5 games

L30-48
atOregon State
Covered
L16-17
atUtah State
Covered
L6-26
vsFresno State
Missed
L24-34
vsArizona
Covered
W48-7
vsDuquesne
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.26−0.14−0.03+0.09+0.20Entering week12345678Boise State · 1: +0.01Boise State · 2: +0.09Boise State · 3: +0.13Boise State · 4: +0.09Boise State · 5: +0.17Boise State · 6: +0.17Boise State · 7: +0.16Boise State · 8: +0.15Washington State · 1: −0.09Washington State · 2: −0.06Washington State · 3: −0.11Washington State · 4: −0.13Washington State · 5: −0.16Washington State · 6: −0.22Washington State · 7: −0.21Washington State · 8: −0.17
● Boise State● Washington State