BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Duke at Virginia
Duke5-2away
19
FinalScott Stadium, 52°, wind 6 mph
Virginia4-4home
16
BEAVER DUKE +2.5, wonBEAVER Over 46.5, lostBEAVER had UVA 53% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (DUKE–UVA)23–2423–23–19–16
SpreadUVA −1.2DUKE −0.4UVA −2.5DUKE by 3DUKE +2.5 ✓
Total46.945.546.535Over 46.5 ✗
UVA win chance53%–−135Lost
DUKE by 14+
17%
DUKE by 1–13
30%
UVA by 1–13
32%
UVA by 14+
21%

Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Duke (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened UVA −6.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.030 #50Offense EPA / play+0.024 #52
+0.004 #56Defense EPA / play allowed+0.010 #61
−1.2% #80Offense success rate+1.8% #50
+0.2% #66Defense success rate allowed−1.3% #45
+0.034 #67Rushing EPA / play+0.129 #28
+0.015 #53Passing EPA / play−0.018 #64
−0.102 #24Rush defense EPA allowed+0.038 #76
+0.090 #85Pass defense EPA allowed+0.068 #81
+1.1 #58Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.2 #77
−3.3 #36Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.8 #30
Situational
−2.1% #72Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.8% #118
−5.5% #15Passing-down success allowed−6.6% #8
+0.24 #54Points per drive+0.16 #58
−0.17 #49Points per drive allowed−0.46 #33
Trenches
+0.12 #65Line yards per rush+0.58 #6
−0.19 #38Line yards per rush allowed+0.15 #92
−0.4% #85Runs stuffed at the line−8.1% #3
+0.5% #61Opponent runs stuffed−1.9% #100
−4.2% #20Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.9% #22
−0.7% #74Havoc created−0.6% #69
Big plays
+0.110 #23Rushing explosiveness−0.050 #95
+0.083 #84Passing explosiveness−0.078 #129
−0.10 #67Open-field yards per rush−0.62 #126
−0.084 #29Pass explosiveness allowed+0.054 #89
Style and schedule
55% #69Run rate59% #36
−9.4 #91Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.7 #72

Duke: last 5 games

L20-24
vsNorth Carolina
Missed
L25-28
atGeorgia Tech
Missed
W62-7
vsWilliam & Mary
Covered
W35-7
vsStanford
Covered
W31-27
atIllinois
Covered

Virginia: last 5 games

L13-23
atSMU
Push
W28-25
vsSyracuse
Missed
L7-38
atFlorida State
Missed
W42-3
vsDelaware
Covered
L27-38
vsWest Virginia
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.06+0.01+0.07+0.14+0.20Entering week12345678Duke · 1: +0.03Duke · 2: −0.04Duke · 3: +0.05Duke · 4: +0.09Duke · 5: +0.06Duke · 6: +0.03Duke · 7: +0.01Duke · 8: +0.03Virginia · 1: +0.03Virginia · 2: +0.14Virginia · 3: +0.18Virginia · 4: +0.09Virginia · 5: +0.10Virginia · 6: +0.03Virginia · 7: +0.01Virginia · 8: +0.01
● Duke● Virginia