College football scores › Week 7 › Arizona State at Texas Tech
BEAVER TTU −15.5, wonBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had TTU 89% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ASU–TTU) | 17–37 | 22–34 | – | 25–53 | |
| Spread | TTU −19.2 | TTU −12.3 | TTU −15.5 | TTU by 28 | TTU −15.5 ✓ |
| Total | 54.1 | 55.3 | 50.5 | 78 | Over 50.5 ✓ |
| TTU win chance | 89% | – | −800 | Won |
ASU by 14+
2%
ASU by 1–13
10%
TTU by 1–13
26%
TTU by 14+
63%
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Texas Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened TTU −12.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.056 #91Offense EPA / play+0.037 #48
+0.018 #67Defense EPA / play allowed−0.141 #12
+1.5% #54Offense success rate+3.7% #35
−0.7% #51Defense success rate allowed−6.5% #11
−0.006 #84Rushing EPA / play+0.128 #28
−0.074 #88Passing EPA / play+0.056 #43
+0.062 #88Rush defense EPA allowed−0.114 #21
+0.007 #57Pass defense EPA allowed−0.141 #16
+1.5 #56Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.6 #23
+3.4 #89Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.1 #15
Situational
+5.6% #21Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.0% #23
−3.5% #29Passing-down success allowed−2.9% #36
+0.13 #60Points per drive+0.31 #49
+0.23 #76Points per drive allowed−0.95 #12
Trenches
+0.23 #45Line yards per rush+0.25 #43
+0.09 #82Line yards per rush allowed−0.31 #25
−2.1% #68Runs stuffed at the line−1.6% #74
−1.4% #88Opponent runs stuffed+2.8% #33
−0.8% #83Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.5% #112
−0.3% #60Havoc created+1.2% #31
Big plays
−0.173 #130Rushing explosiveness+0.071 #41
+0.067 #89Passing explosiveness−0.043 #120
+0.21 #30Open-field yards per rush+0.14 #39
+0.028 #72Pass explosiveness allowed−0.004 #62
Style and schedule
54% #94Run rate55% #79
−7.4 #75Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.9 #52
Arizona State: last 5 games
| W30-12 | Missed | |
| L19-55 | Missed | |
| W24-17 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed | |
| W70-7 | Covered |
Texas Tech: last 5 games
| W29-7 | Covered | |
| W49-14 | Covered | |
| W28-26 | Missed | |
| W35-24 | Missed | |
| W33-10 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekASUTTU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TTU −15.5 | 50.5 | ASU +550 · TTU −800 |
| BEAVER fair line | TTU −19.2 | 54.1 | ASU +771 · TTU −771 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ASU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 30.9 / 29.9 | Points for / against | 35.9 / 20.4 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | +15.4 |
| -4.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.5 |
| 56.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.9 |