BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Mississippi State at LSU
Mississippi State4-3away
0
FinalTiger Stadium (LA), 67°, wind 16 mph
LSUNo. 156-2home
31
BEAVER MSST +17.5, lostBEAVER Under 55.5, wonBEAVER had LSU 79% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (MSST–LSU)21–3429–34–0–31
SpreadLSU −13.0LSU −4.0LSU −17.5LSU by 31MSST +17.5 ✗
Total55.263.055.531Under 55.5 ✓
LSU win chance79%–−950Won
MSST by 14+
5%
MSST by 1–13
16%
LSU by 1–13
32%
LSU by 14+
48%

Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Mississippi State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened LSU −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.158 #14Offense EPA / play+0.104 #23
−0.024 #41Defense EPA / play allowed−0.174 #5
+7.8% #11Offense success rate+6.3% #14
−0.8% #50Defense success rate allowed−11.1% #1
+0.180 #13Rushing EPA / play+0.042 #67
+0.171 #20Passing EPA / play+0.191 #15
−0.057 #32Rush defense EPA allowed−0.119 #17
−0.015 #48Pass defense EPA allowed−0.247 #4
+10.5 #9Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+11.5 #7
−0.6 #58Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.6 #13
Situational
+6.1% #17Passing-down success (3rd & long)+7.3% #6
−2.4% #43Passing-down success allowed−6.1% #12
+1.35 #13Points per drive+1.71 #7
−0.13 #51Points per drive allowed−0.77 #19
Trenches
+0.47 #14Line yards per rush+0.19 #55
+0.01 #69Line yards per rush allowed−0.90 #3
−3.7% #38Runs stuffed at the line−2.9% #53
−1.4% #86Opponent runs stuffed+9.0% #3
−3.4% #29Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.1% #73
+1.1% #36Havoc created+3.9% #9
Big plays
−0.011 #83Rushing explosiveness−0.077 #108
+0.159 #50Passing explosiveness+0.128 #64
+0.32 #20Open-field yards per rush−0.18 #72
−0.007 #59Pass explosiveness allowed+0.123 #112
Style and schedule
55% #78Run rate55% #75
+4.9 #8Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+0.1 #19

Mississippi State: last 5 games

L23-56
vsAlabama
Missed
W31-24
vsMissouri
Covered
W41-34
atSouth Carolina
Covered
W38-13
atMinnesota
Covered
W62-13
vsUL Monroe
Covered

LSU: last 5 games

L34-35
atKentucky
Missed
W63-14
vsMcNeese
Missed
W35-6
vsTexas A&M
Covered
L24-32
atOle Miss
Missed
W45-14
vsLouisiana Tech
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.07+0.16+0.25+0.34Entering week1234567Mississippi State · 1: +0.01Mississippi State · 2: +0.13Mississippi State · 3: +0.28Mississippi State · 4: +0.25Mississippi State · 5: +0.23Mississippi State · 6: +0.18Mississippi State · 7: +0.18LSU · 1: +0.15LSU · 2: +0.30LSU · 3: +0.31LSU · 4: +0.27LSU · 5: +0.32LSU · 6: +0.28LSU · 7: +0.28
● Mississippi State● LSU