College football scores › Week 6 › Ball State at Northwestern
BEAVER NU −35.5, lostBEAVER Over 53.5, wonBEAVER had NU 99% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BALL–NU) | 11–47 | 3–50 | – | 14–45 | |
| Spread | NU −36.0 | NU −46.6 | NU −35.5 | NU by 31 | NU −35.5 ✗ |
| Total | 57.1 | 52.7 | 53.5 | 59 | Over 53.5 ✓ |
| NU win chance | 99% | – | – | Won |
BALL by 14+
0%
BALL by 1–13
1%
NU by 1–13
7%
NU by 14+
91%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NU −36.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.117 #115Offense EPA / play+0.178 #10
+0.187 #131Defense EPA / play allowed−0.004 #55
−8.5% #134Offense success rate+8.3% #9
+3.8% #100Defense success rate allowed+2.7% #91
−0.059 #110Rushing EPA / play+0.219 #7
−0.109 #91Passing EPA / play+0.138 #23
+0.187 #133Rush defense EPA allowed+0.047 #82
+0.187 #118Pass defense EPA allowed−0.081 #25
−10.5 #129Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.7 #23
+10.3 #129Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.1 #14
Situational
−6.5% #108Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.6% #17
+6.3% #124Passing-down success allowed−3.3% #29
−1.37 #127Points per drive+0.26 #55
+1.48 #130Points per drive allowed−1.03 #8
Trenches
−0.28 #124Line yards per rush+0.45 #18
+0.17 #95Line yards per rush allowed+0.28 #117
+0.7% #105Runs stuffed at the line−6.7% #9
+0.3% #65Opponent runs stuffed−0.7% #81
+2.6% #133Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.6% #23
−3.8% #130Havoc created+1.7% #29
Big plays
+0.136 #21Rushing explosiveness+0.069 #47
+0.108 #70Passing explosiveness+0.070 #86
+0.14 #35Open-field yards per rush+0.45 #13
+0.017 #75Pass explosiveness allowed−0.182 #6
Style and schedule
54% #93Run rate61% #22
−5.4 #47Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+4.3 #8
Ball State: last 5 games
| L24-39 | Covered | |
| L13-26 | Missed | |
| L15-51 | Missed | |
| W41-17 | Covered | |
| L3-56 | Missed |
Northwestern: last 4 games
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L23-29 | Covered | |
| W41-7 | Covered | |
| W34-18 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBALLNU
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NU −35.5 | 53.5 | – |
| BEAVER fair line | NU −36 | 57.1 | BALL +7652 · NU −7652 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BALL | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 5-0 |
| 1-4 | Away | 1-1 |
| 5-3 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 22.0 / 35.2 | Points for / against | 34.7 / 16.6 |
| -13.2 | Avg margin | +18.1 |
| -0.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +10.8 |
| 56.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.1 |