College football scores › Week 6 › LSU at Kentucky
BEAVER UK +8.5, wonBEAVER Under 50.5, lostBEAVER had LSU 68% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LSU–UK) | 29–21 | 34–25 | – | 34–35 | |
| Spread | LSU −7.6 | LSU −8.8 | LSU −8.5 | UK by 1 | UK +8.5 ✓ |
| Total | 50.2 | 59.2 | 50.5 | 69 | Under 50.5 ✗ |
| UK win chance | 32% | – | +285 | Won |
LSU by 14+
34%
LSU by 1–13
34%
UK by 1–13
23%
UK by 14+
9%
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened LSU −10.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.093 #25Offense EPA / play+0.064 #35
−0.188 #4Defense EPA / play allowed−0.090 #21
+5.5% #17Offense success rate+7.2% #12
−11.1% #1Defense success rate allowed−0.1% #62
+0.066 #54Rushing EPA / play+0.141 #21
+0.123 #28Passing EPA / play−0.006 #61
−0.142 #15Rush defense EPA allowed−0.025 #43
−0.268 #2Pass defense EPA allowed−0.131 #19
+11.1 #8Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.2 #27
−8.4 #10Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.2 #33
Situational
+5.2% #18Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.0% #48
−4.5% #21Passing-down success allowed+3.2% #96
+1.80 #8Points per drive+0.38 #42
−0.78 #15Points per drive allowed−0.69 #22
Trenches
+0.26 #45Line yards per rush+0.54 #8
−0.88 #2Line yards per rush allowed−0.21 #35
−4.2% #33Runs stuffed at the line−6.0% #17
+8.8% #3Opponent runs stuffed+0.9% #55
−0.6% #91Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.8% #41
+5.3% #4Havoc created+2.7% #19
Big plays
−0.040 #96Rushing explosiveness−0.136 #124
+0.126 #60Passing explosiveness−0.003 #112
−0.08 #62Open-field yards per rush+0.07 #42
+0.185 #125Pass explosiveness allowed−0.155 #13
Style and schedule
54% #86Run rate57% #52
−2.2 #32Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+5.8 #4
LSU: last 5 games
| W63-14 | Missed | |
| W35-6 | Covered | |
| L24-32 | Missed | |
| W45-14 | Missed | |
| W51-10 | Covered |
Kentucky: last 5 games
| W35-34 | Covered | |
| W45-21 | Covered | |
| W31-21 | Covered | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| W45-13 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekLSUUK
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LSU −8.5 | 50.5 | LSU −360 · UK +285 |
| BEAVER fair line | LSU −7.6 | 50.2 | LSU −217 · UK +217 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| LSU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 7-1 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 5-1 |
| 5-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 3-0 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 7-1 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 40.1 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 32.9 / 24.8 |
| +24.1 | Avg margin | +8.1 |
| +6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.2 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |