College football scores › Week 8 › Rutgers at Northwestern
BEAVER NU −15.5, wonBEAVER Over 59.5, lostBEAVER had NU 88% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (RUTG–NU) | 22–41 | 14–42 | – | 14–42 | |
| Spread | NU −19.5 | NU −28.5 | NU −15.5 | NU by 28 | NU −15.5 ✓ |
| Total | 63.2 | 56.2 | 59.5 | 56 | Over 59.5 ✗ |
| NU win chance | 88% | – | −750 | Won |
RUTG by 14+
2%
RUTG by 1–13
10%
NU by 1–13
25%
NU by 14+
63%
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NU −16.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.033 #48Offense EPA / play+0.180 #10
+0.160 #121Defense EPA / play allowed−0.001 #49
+3.7% #34Offense success rate+7.5% #13
+6.3% #123Defense success rate allowed+2.6% #90
−0.020 #93Rushing EPA / play+0.174 #17
+0.130 #26Passing EPA / play+0.157 #21
+0.220 #138Rush defense EPA allowed+0.027 #73
+0.138 #102Pass defense EPA allowed−0.069 #31
+1.1 #59Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.5 #30
+8.2 #122Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.8 #25
Situational
+5.6% #19Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.9% #10
+3.6% #104Passing-down success allowed−0.8% #55
+0.18 #57Points per drive+0.46 #41
+0.89 #114Points per drive allowed−0.66 #25
Trenches
+0.02 #83Line yards per rush+0.33 #32
+0.24 #106Line yards per rush allowed+0.16 #93
−3.0% #56Runs stuffed at the line−4.1% #30
+0.2% #65Opponent runs stuffed−0.0% #69
−1.1% #74Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.6% #64
−2.6% #110Havoc created+0.4% #44
Big plays
−0.081 #108Rushing explosiveness+0.065 #43
+0.365 #5Passing explosiveness+0.082 #85
−0.29 #91Open-field yards per rush+0.33 #15
−0.079 #34Pass explosiveness allowed−0.137 #17
Style and schedule
56% #55Run rate59% #34
−7.8 #79Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.8 #29
Rutgers: last 5 games
| W37-30 | Covered | |
| L15-47 | Missed | |
| W58-7 | Covered | |
| L35-42 | Covered | |
| L21-28 | Missed |
Northwestern: last 5 games
| W24-21 | Missed | |
| W45-14 | Missed | |
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L23-29 | Covered | |
| W41-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekRUTGNU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NU −15.5 | 59.5 | RUTG +525 · NU −750 |
| BEAVER fair line | NU −19.5 | 63.2 | RUTG +759 · NU −759 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| RUTG | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Home | 5-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 28.7 / 33.3 | Points for / against | 34.7 / 16.6 |
| -4.6 | Avg margin | +18.1 |
| -4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +10.8 |
| 56.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.1 |