College football scores › Week 7 › Florida Atlantic at Army
BEAVER ARMY −2.5, wonBEAVER Under 55.5, lostBEAVER had ARMY 66% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FAU–ARMY) | 23–30 | 26–28 | – | 24–56 | |
| Spread | ARMY −6.6 | ARMY −2.5 | ARMY −2.5 | ARMY by 32 | ARMY −2.5 ✓ |
| Total | 52.9 | 53.7 | 55.5 | 80 | Under 55.5 ✗ |
| ARMY win chance | 66% | – | −130 | Won |
FAU by 14+
10%
FAU by 1–13
24%
ARMY by 1–13
34%
ARMY by 14+
32%
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Army (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened ARMY −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.003 #65Offense EPA / play+0.022 #50
+0.173 #128Defense EPA / play allowed+0.148 #116
+0.4% #68Offense success rate+2.6% #42
+2.0% #85Defense success rate allowed+5.1% #114
+0.019 #75Rushing EPA / play+0.182 #11
−0.056 #82Passing EPA / play−0.126 #100
+0.172 #131Rush defense EPA allowed+0.165 #130
+0.145 #102Pass defense EPA allowed+0.209 #120
−1.1 #72Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.7 #84
+8.5 #122Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.1 #69
Situational
+3.9% #26Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.7% #101
+1.5% #85Passing-down success allowed+7.0% #124
+1.03 #18Points per drive+0.01 #68
+1.23 #126Points per drive allowed+0.39 #91
Trenches
+0.10 #73Line yards per rush+0.41 #20
+0.00 #67Line yards per rush allowed+0.44 #128
−3.8% #37Runs stuffed at the line−6.6% #9
+1.5% #49Opponent runs stuffed−3.1% #114
−0.4% #95Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.0% #7
−1.5% #93Havoc created−3.5% #128
Big plays
+0.059 #45Rushing explosiveness+0.056 #46
−0.045 #121Passing explosiveness+0.320 #10
−0.75 #135Open-field yards per rush+0.07 #44
+0.223 #133Pass explosiveness allowed+0.089 #95
Style and schedule
48% #127Run rate84% #2
−18.7 #135Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.0 #112
Florida Atlantic: last 5 games
| W66-10 | Covered | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W16-10 | Covered | |
| W38-30 | Covered | |
| L21-66 | Missed |
Army: last 5 games
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| L29-31 | Missed | |
| W21-17 | Push | |
| L24-28 | Missed | |
| W59-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFAUARMY
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ARMY −2.5 | 55.5 | FAU +110 · ARMY −130 |
| BEAVER fair line | ARMY −6.6 | 52.9 | FAU +195 · ARMY −195 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FAU | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 6-1 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 37.3 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 35.3 / 22.1 |
| +3.3 | Avg margin | +13.1 |
| -2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.6 |
| 60.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |