College football scores › Week 7 › Cincinnati at West Virginia
BEAVER CIN +1.5, lostBEAVER Under 63.5, lostBEAVER had CIN 57% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CIN–WVU) | 32–29 | 32–31 | – | 42–45 | |
| Spread | CIN −2.7 | CIN −0.4 | WVU −1.5 | WVU by 3 | CIN +1.5 ✗ |
| Total | 61.3 | 62.9 | 63.5 | 87 | Under 63.5 ✗ |
| WVU win chance | 43% | – | −122 | Won |
CIN by 14+
24%
CIN by 1–13
32%
WVU by 1–13
28%
WVU by 14+
15%
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Cincinnati (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.086 #29Offense EPA / play+0.005 #60
+0.093 #99Defense EPA / play allowed+0.149 #117
+1.5% #53Offense success rate+0.1% #71
+4.8% #111Defense success rate allowed+5.3% #118
+0.128 #27Rushing EPA / play+0.098 #41
+0.029 #51Passing EPA / play−0.070 #85
+0.122 #112Rush defense EPA allowed+0.010 #63
+0.110 #88Pass defense EPA allowed+0.290 #132
+1.4 #58Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.1 #29
+1.0 #68Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+7.9 #120
Situational
−2.5% #76Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.2% #37
+5.7% #118Passing-down success allowed+2.7% #96
+0.17 #58Points per drive+0.21 #54
+0.31 #81Points per drive allowed+0.34 #83
Trenches
+0.38 #23Line yards per rush+0.22 #47
+0.44 #127Line yards per rush allowed−0.16 #37
−5.1% #27Runs stuffed at the line−3.8% #36
−2.6% #109Opponent runs stuffed+4.2% #21
−4.1% #23Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.9% #35
−0.6% #68Havoc created−0.8% #78
Big plays
+0.191 #8Rushing explosiveness+0.091 #34
+0.044 #99Passing explosiveness+0.604 #1
+0.29 #21Open-field yards per rush+0.22 #28
−0.063 #38Pass explosiveness allowed+0.040 #81
Style and schedule
61% #26Run rate74% #5
−7.9 #78Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.5 #49
Cincinnati: last 5 games
| L7-34 | Missed | |
| W31-26 | Covered | |
| W35-31 | Missed | |
| W62-10 | Covered | |
| W34-15 | Covered |
West Virginia: last 5 games
| L31-52 | Missed | |
| L42-45 | Push | |
| L24-41 | Missed | |
| W38-27 | Covered | |
| W52-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCINWVU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WVU −1.5 | 63.5 | CIN +102 · WVU −122 |
| BEAVER fair line | CIN −2.7 | 61.3 | CIN −130 · WVU +130 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CIN | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-3 |
| 5-0 | Home | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-3-1 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 7-1 |
| 35.4 / 26.4 | Points for / against | 35.9 / 32.2 |
| +9.0 | Avg margin | +3.6 |
| +4.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.2 |
| 61.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.6 |