College football scores › Week 6 › Buffalo at Toledo
BEAVER TOL −18.5, lostBEAVER Over 55.5, lostBEAVER had TOL 95% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BUF–TOL) | 17–45 | 13–47 | – | 23–8 | |
| Spread | TOL −27.4 | TOL −33.4 | TOL −18.5 | BUF by 15 | TOL −18.5 ✗ |
| Total | 61.8 | 60.2 | 55.5 | 31 | Over 55.5 ✗ |
| TOL win chance | 95% | – | −1100 | Lost |
BUF by 14+
1%
BUF by 1–13
4%
TOL by 1–13
16%
TOL by 14+
79%
Spread: 8.9 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 6.3 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened TOL −20.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.183 #127Offense EPA / play+0.009 #62
+0.184 #130Defense EPA / play allowed+0.022 #65
−9.2% #135Offense success rate−1.0% #79
+3.7% #99Defense success rate allowed−1.5% #46
−0.137 #127Rushing EPA / play+0.034 #70
−0.218 #121Passing EPA / play+0.002 #60
+0.139 #120Rush defense EPA allowed−0.035 #38
+0.248 #130Pass defense EPA allowed+0.206 #121
−9.0 #121Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.6 #24
+13.6 #134Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.5 #103
Situational
−9.1% #125Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.2% #95
+0.1% #76Passing-down success allowed−0.4% #62
−1.38 #128Points per drive+0.72 #24
+1.31 #128Points per drive allowed+0.46 #97
Trenches
−0.40 #130Line yards per rush+0.18 #55
+0.56 #135Line yards per rush allowed−0.08 #54
+1.8% #117Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #48
−4.4% #125Opponent runs stuffed+1.9% #43
+0.9% #117Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #86
−1.6% #90Havoc created−3.0% #117
Big plays
+0.083 #40Rushing explosiveness+0.076 #45
+0.053 #95Passing explosiveness+0.335 #11
−0.43 #108Open-field yards per rush+0.01 #51
+0.272 #135Pass explosiveness allowed+0.104 #107
Style and schedule
56% #63Run rate55% #79
−16.5 #124Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.1 #114
Buffalo: last 5 games
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W31-28 | Missed | |
| L13-55 | Missed | |
| L20-33 | Missed | |
| W21-17 | Missed |
Toledo: last 5 games
| W39-24 | Missed | |
| W41-16 | Covered | |
| W49-48 | Missed | |
| W63-10 | Covered | |
| L20-30 | Push |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBUFTOL
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TOL −18.5 | 55.5 | BUF +700 · TOL −1100 |
| BEAVER fair line | TOL −27.4 | 61.8 | BUF +2060 · TOL −2060 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BUF | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 6-2 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 4-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-3-1 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 22.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 25.4 |
| -2.8 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| +0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.7 |
| 71.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |