College football scores › Week 8 › Bowling Green at Buffalo
BEAVER BUF −3, wonBEAVER Over 44.5, wonBEAVER had BUF 66% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BGSU–BUF) | 21–27 | 20–28 | – | 24–31 | |
| Spread | BUF −6.4 | BUF −8.0 | BUF −3 | BUF by 7 | BUF −3 ✓ |
| Total | 48.2 | 47.9 | 44.5 | 55 | Over 44.5 ✓ |
| BUF win chance | 66% | – | −155 | Won |
BGSU by 14+
10%
BGSU by 1–13
25%
BUF by 1–13
34%
BUF by 14+
31%
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Buffalo (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened BUF −4.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.225 #135Offense EPA / play−0.165 #126
+0.115 #110Defense EPA / play allowed+0.127 #113
−5.5% #118Offense success rate−9.1% #136
+7.1% #128Defense success rate allowed+2.5% #88
−0.200 #136Rushing EPA / play−0.074 #114
−0.194 #120Passing EPA / play−0.261 #128
+0.144 #116Rush defense EPA allowed+0.119 #107
+0.093 #87Pass defense EPA allowed+0.135 #101
−12.6 #133Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.0 #117
+7.1 #116Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.2 #120
Situational
−10.6% #132Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.7% #136
+2.1% #95Passing-down success allowed−3.1% #36
−1.18 #120Points per drive−1.45 #130
+1.29 #129Points per drive allowed+0.77 #111
Trenches
−0.35 #132Line yards per rush−0.34 #130
+0.50 #132Line yards per rush allowed+0.45 #127
+2.1% #122Runs stuffed at the line−0.0% #93
−2.8% #109Opponent runs stuffed−5.2% #132
+2.1% #129Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.5% #111
−3.1% #124Havoc created−0.8% #81
Big plays
−0.316 #138Rushing explosiveness+0.073 #40
+0.068 #93Passing explosiveness−0.051 #122
−0.92 #137Open-field yards per rush−0.26 #89
+0.030 #78Pass explosiveness allowed+0.079 #96
Style and schedule
60% #29Run rate57% #50
−9.6 #94Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.5 #120
Bowling Green: last 5 games
| L31-32 | Missed | |
| W38-10 | Covered | |
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| L6-14 | Covered | |
| L7-55 | Missed |
Buffalo: last 5 games
| W25-18 | Covered | |
| W23-8 | Covered | |
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W31-28 | Missed | |
| L13-55 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBGSUBUF
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BUF −3 | 44.5 | BGSU +130 · BUF −155 |
| BEAVER fair line | BUF −6.4 | 48.2 | BGSU +191 · BUF −191 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BGSU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 18.8 / 29.8 | Points for / against | 22.6 / 25.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | -2.8 |
| -2.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.3 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.9 |