College football scores › Week 7 › Alabama at Tennessee
BEAVER ALA −7.5, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, lostBEAVER had ALA 70% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ALA–TENN) | 31–22 | 33–23 | – | 10–26 | |
| Spread | ALA −8.5 | ALA −9.4 | ALA −7.5 | TENN by 16 | ALA −7.5 ✗ |
| Total | 52.5 | 56.0 | 50.5 | 36 | Over 50.5 ✗ |
| TENN win chance | 30% | – | +250 | Won |
ALA by 14+
37%
ALA by 1–13
34%
TENN by 1–13
22%
TENN by 14+
8%
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened ALA −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.243 #4Offense EPA / play+0.069 #33
−0.215 #3Defense EPA / play allowed−0.143 #11
+9.2% #7Offense success rate+3.1% #38
−9.9% #3Defense success rate allowed−3.7% #27
+0.293 #1Rushing EPA / play+0.245 #4
+0.225 #10Passing EPA / play−0.110 #95
−0.285 #1Rush defense EPA allowed−0.018 #45
−0.121 #20Pass defense EPA allowed−0.207 #9
+17.3 #1Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+8.8 #14
−11.0 #6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.1 #27
Situational
+3.1% #29Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.0% #104
−6.9% #11Passing-down success allowed−5.7% #14
+1.95 #4Points per drive+1.02 #19
−1.45 #3Points per drive allowed−0.54 #31
Trenches
+0.62 #3Line yards per rush+0.59 #7
−1.07 #1Line yards per rush allowed−0.01 #65
−5.5% #24Runs stuffed at the line−6.1% #16
+9.1% #2Opponent runs stuffed+0.8% #59
−2.0% #58Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #81
+4.6% #4Havoc created+4.2% #7
Big plays
+0.152 #17Rushing explosiveness+0.158 #15
+0.189 #40Passing explosiveness+0.110 #71
+0.60 #8Open-field yards per rush+0.29 #22
+0.141 #118Pass explosiveness allowed−0.312 #2
Style and schedule
56% #60Run rate61% #19
+9.2 #2Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.6 #43
Alabama: last 5 games
| L17-20 | Missed | |
| W56-23 | Covered | |
| W49-18 | Covered | |
| W50-36 | Missed | |
| W45-17 | Covered |
Tennessee: last 5 games
| W24-17 | Missed | |
| W24-14 | Covered | |
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W42-9 | Missed | |
| W45-24 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekALATENN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ALA −7.5 | 50.5 | ALA −310 · TENN +250 |
| BEAVER fair line | ALA −8.5 | 52.5 | ALA −237 · TENN +237 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ALA | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 4-2 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 38.2 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 32.2 / 16.2 |
| +17.0 | Avg margin | +16.0 |
| +4.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 57.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.0 |