College football scores › Week 7 › Memphis at Tulane
BEAVER TULN +7, wonBEAVER Under 55.5, wonBEAVER had MEM 59% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MEM–TULN) | 27–24 | 32–17 | – | 17–31 | |
| Spread | MEM −3.6 | MEM −14.4 | MEM −7 | TULN by 14 | TULN +7 ✓ |
| Total | 50.6 | 49.3 | 55.5 | 48 | Under 55.5 ✓ |
| TULN win chance | 41% | – | +210 | Won |
MEM by 14+
26%
MEM by 1–13
33%
TULN by 1–13
28%
TULN by 14+
13%
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Tulane (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.052 #39Offense EPA / play−0.109 #108
+0.064 #81Defense EPA / play allowed+0.063 #80
+2.8% #41Offense success rate−8.5% #133
+0.7% #72Defense success rate allowed+0.8% #74
+0.087 #44Rushing EPA / play+0.001 #82
+0.195 #13Passing EPA / play−0.216 #118
+0.157 #128Rush defense EPA allowed+0.015 #65
−0.024 #45Pass defense EPA allowed+0.069 #76
+3.8 #37Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.4 #117
+1.2 #71Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.8 #38
Situational
−0.8% #59Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.2% #122
−1.6% #54Passing-down success allowed+2.9% #97
+0.18 #57Points per drive−1.12 #115
+0.13 #71Points per drive allowed−0.47 #33
Trenches
+0.37 #26Line yards per rush−0.27 #124
+0.23 #105Line yards per rush allowed+0.12 #88
−4.4% #32Runs stuffed at the line−0.6% #90
−3.5% #120Opponent runs stuffed−1.3% #85
−3.3% #30Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.4% #130
+0.2% #53Havoc created−2.4% #107
Big plays
+0.021 #64Rushing explosiveness+0.182 #11
+0.268 #21Passing explosiveness+0.231 #29
+0.40 #15Open-field yards per rush+0.50 #11
+0.129 #115Pass explosiveness allowed+0.106 #104
Style and schedule
60% #31Run rate55% #71
−13.6 #115Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.2 #46
Memphis: last 5 games
| W38-13 | Covered | |
| W59-8 | Covered | |
| W45-21 | Missed | |
| L20-38 | Missed | |
| W42-24 | Covered |
Tulane: last 5 games
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W24-21 | Missed | |
| L20-31 | Covered | |
| W28-24 | Missed | |
| L3-17 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMEMTULN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MEM −7 | 55.5 | MEM −258 · TULN +210 |
| BEAVER fair line | MEM −3.6 | 50.6 | MEM −143 · TULN +143 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MEM | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 36.1 / 23.8 | Points for / against | 20.3 / 24.6 |
| +12.4 | Avg margin | -4.3 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 66.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.9 |