College football scores › Week 7 › Georgia Southern at Old Dominion
BEAVER GASO −3.5, wonBEAVER Under 47.5, wonBEAVER had GASO 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (GASO–ODU) | 25–19 | 27–23 | – | 23–15 | |
| Spread | GASO −6.1 | GASO −4.4 | GASO −3.5 | GASO by 8 | GASO −3.5 ✓ |
| Total | 43.7 | 49.9 | 47.5 | 38 | Under 47.5 ✓ |
| ODU win chance | 35% | – | +130 | Lost |
GASO by 14+
31%
GASO by 1–13
35%
ODU by 1–13
25%
ODU by 14+
10%
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened GASO −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.012 #55Offense EPA / play−0.234 #136
+0.069 #84Defense EPA / play allowed−0.080 #24
+1.0% #60Offense success rate−10.4% #138
+1.2% #78Defense success rate allowed−2.8% #33
−0.054 #108Rushing EPA / play−0.179 #136
+0.061 #39Passing EPA / play−0.341 #135
+0.036 #75Rush defense EPA allowed−0.076 #27
+0.155 #105Pass defense EPA allowed−0.062 #36
−3.4 #81Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.3 #128
+2.2 #82Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.7 #85
Situational
−0.4% #55Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.0% #91
+1.5% #84Passing-down success allowed−4.1% #25
−0.42 #87Points per drive−1.48 #132
+0.35 #84Points per drive allowed+0.11 #68
Trenches
+0.09 #74Line yards per rush−0.85 #138
+0.10 #86Line yards per rush allowed−0.01 #66
−1.5% #75Runs stuffed at the line+7.9% #137
−0.0% #69Opponent runs stuffed+0.7% #61
−0.4% #94Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+4.6% #138
−0.8% #76Havoc created+1.8% #25
Big plays
−0.092 #114Rushing explosiveness+0.079 #38
−0.022 #117Passing explosiveness+0.272 #20
−0.00 #51Open-field yards per rush−0.02 #53
−0.070 #36Pass explosiveness allowed+0.029 #73
Style and schedule
48% #129Run rate62% #16
−5.1 #54Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.3 #80
Georgia Southern: last 5 games
| L24-27 | Covered | |
| W31-24 | Covered | |
| L28-42 | Covered | |
| L27-31 | Missed | |
| L7-22 | Covered |
Old Dominion: last 5 games
| W10-3 | Covered | |
| L10-42 | Missed | |
| L20-46 | Missed | |
| L17-20 | Missed | |
| L21-44 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekGASOODU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | GASO −3.5 | 47.5 | GASO −155 · ODU +130 |
| BEAVER fair line | GASO −6.1 | 43.7 | GASO −187 · ODU +187 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| GASO | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-6 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | Away | 1-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 1-7 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 24.4 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 15.5 / 26.8 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | -11.2 |
| +3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.4 |
| 66.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.9 |