College football scores › Week 6 › Nevada at UTEP
BEAVER UTEP +10, lostBEAVER Over 49.5, lostBEAVER had NEV 71% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NEV–UTEP) | 30–22 | 36–22 | – | 30–13 | |
| Spread | NEV −8.8 | NEV −14.8 | NEV −10 | NEV by 17 | UTEP +10 ✗ |
| Total | 51.9 | 58.1 | 49.5 | 43 | Over 49.5 ✗ |
| UTEP win chance | 29% | – | +295 | Lost |
NEV by 14+
37%
NEV by 1–13
34%
UTEP by 1–13
21%
UTEP by 14+
8%
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NEV −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.146 #122Offense EPA / play−0.238 #136
+0.155 #122Defense EPA / play allowed+0.192 #134
−5.0% #117Offense success rate−6.2% #126
+3.9% #102Defense success rate allowed+8.6% #134
+0.011 #81Rushing EPA / play−0.137 #128
−0.286 #132Passing EPA / play−0.263 #129
+0.102 #106Rush defense EPA allowed+0.108 #111
+0.246 #129Pass defense EPA allowed+0.371 #137
−8.0 #109Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−10.2 #128
+6.4 #111Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+15.0 #137
Situational
−2.6% #76Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.2% #126
+4.4% #111Passing-down success allowed+8.6% #132
−1.11 #117Points per drive−1.09 #114
+0.62 #102Points per drive allowed+2.87 #138
Trenches
+0.03 #86Line yards per rush−0.26 #122
+0.34 #120Line yards per rush allowed+0.16 #92
+0.9% #108Runs stuffed at the line+4.6% #132
−3.3% #118Opponent runs stuffed+1.6% #48
+0.2% #110Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+3.4% #136
−3.8% #131Havoc created−3.0% #119
Big plays
+0.033 #64Rushing explosiveness+0.019 #69
+0.226 #30Passing explosiveness+0.116 #62
−0.01 #54Open-field yards per rush−0.40 #104
+0.049 #90Pass explosiveness allowed−0.018 #61
Style and schedule
61% #25Run rate60% #29
−15.3 #117Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.3 #45
Nevada: last 4 games
| L33-36 | Covered | |
| L20-27 | Missed | |
| L7-20 | Missed | |
| W49-14 | Covered |
UTEP: last 5 games
| L7-61 | Missed | |
| L7-33 | Missed | |
| L17-52 | Missed | |
| W51-10 | Covered | |
| L0-51 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNEVUTEP
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NEV −10 | 49.5 | NEV −375 · UTEP +295 |
| BEAVER fair line | NEV −8.8 | 51.9 | NEV −244 · UTEP +244 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NEV | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-2 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 1-6 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 26.3 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 15.1 / 37.3 |
| +4.3 | Avg margin | -22.1 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 64.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 44.3 |